Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59496616959b8559f5addbef316600dbf5075d5544f577926bcb67bd0bf2c35b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,813
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,813 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 786.26$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.24 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 22c | 485.58$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.85 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 346.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 5c | 335.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 44c | 335.84$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.14 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 16c | 262.91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 17c | 215.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 9c | 183.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 168.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 160.1$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.47 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 46c | 148$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.22 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 25c | 146.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 19c | 141.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 68c | 135.48$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.19 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 19c | 124.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 45c | 120.06$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.03 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 17c | 114.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 19c | 111.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba44…7d2cbacked Yes | 22c | 102.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 24cpaid | -92.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 53c | 101$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.64 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 98.14$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 55c | 96.23$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.98 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecef…4551backed No | 77c | 91.18$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 50c | 69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 16c | 67.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed Yes | 17c | 66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 19c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 24c | 59.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 52c | 57.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 46c | 57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed No | 54c | 57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 51c | 53.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 74c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 25c | 43.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 71c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 46c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87a8…445cbacked Yes | 67c | 37.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 80c | 36.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed Yes | 49c | 34.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 60c | 32.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 62c | 25.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 53c | 24.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 57c | 23.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 52c | 21.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…7cb8backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b8…d8cebacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C or below on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 38°C or higher on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.