Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48cfa03971bc8fd415a47375ab7e1308dfb4b1800eff6f2b6eca37d2ecfc485f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,644
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 3c | 1,459$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,421.92 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca3…8109backed Yes | 4c | 730.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.99 | 317 | 2.5%8 W · 309 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 4c | 622.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 39c | 611.17$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.94 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 9c | 576.09$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.32 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 46c | 543.44$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.16 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 4c | 499.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.97 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 11c | 470.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.96 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 19c | 364.96$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.7 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 34c | 323.62$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.65 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 4c | 322.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.52 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…f982backed No | 59c | 290$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.52 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 17c | 281.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.4 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 5c | 225.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.43 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 62c | 210.4$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 6c | 185.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.42 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 159.91$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.07 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…fc2bbacked Yes | 79c | 159.24$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 80c | 158$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86cb…0a90backed No | 26c | 141.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 140.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.52 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 20c | 137.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.51 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…0f8abacked No | 77c | 129.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.31 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 20c | 120.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.28 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed Yes | 18c | 112$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.32 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…7cb8backed Yes | 73c | 88.7$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 80c | 74.87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3f…fde2backed No | 30c | 72.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f8…d951backed No | 27c | 62.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 69c | 60.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 19c | 57.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.27 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 70c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 75c | 54.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x14ba…9467backed No | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 44c | 48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4e…9321backed Yes | 80c | 45.06$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca7…c5b6backed Yes | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…d496backed No | 55c | 38.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 80c | 34.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f70…bee9backed Yes | 41c | 32.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +252%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…0b6dbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 63c | 28.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 80c | 27.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3be5…bc8bbacked Yes | 76c | 26.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 40c | 25.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 55c | 24.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C or below on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 38°C or higher on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.