Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1cbb3744cb937cf97b66f228dcfd2c2b56a3d9467be9b9c62854f2534fc3e98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,014
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,014 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 20c | 342.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.16 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 4c | 307.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 74c | 184.13$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 18c | 171.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 46c | 154.28$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.71 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 62c | 145.48$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.85 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 37c | 135.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 52c | 127.39$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.03 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 124.61$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 29c | 113$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 56c | 110.04$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.18 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x709d…baaabacked Yes | 58c | 101.8$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.01 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 49c | 96.12$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.23 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 31c | 78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 24c | 73.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d1…cdc7backed Yes | 77c | 66.66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 66.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 30c | 58.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…03c2backed Yes | 53c | 53.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 58c | 51.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked No | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4652…ae3ebacked Yes | 53c | 49.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 58c | 42.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed No | 47c | 40.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 26c | 40.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 46c | 39.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 51c | 39.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 57c | 34.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b5…6bcebacked No | 49c | 33.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…0988backed No | 49c | 32.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 76c | 30.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa89b…ea97backed Yes | 55c | 30.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a9…2d63backed Yes | 55c | 29.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 60cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x849b…0543backed No | 49c | 28.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 27.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…e526backed Yes | 50c | 25.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6671…e109backed No | 48c | 24.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 77c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafad…10c9backed Yes | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4969…805fbacked Yes | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a7…8865backed Yes | 79c | 20.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +85%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8609…401ebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 52c | 19.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…dd79backed No | 59c | 16.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 79c | 14.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 80c | 13.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.74 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.