Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bc4f1a7dece447c85e9629d9850570885ec5686d786b80359d12fad8dc16644
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdcb9…1879backed Yes | 73c | 944.92$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.03 | 43 | 93%40 W · 3 L | +14.6wins | +0.34per pick | 59cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 72c | 632.84$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.75 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 25c | 555.55$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.33 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 20c | 344.55$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.77 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 260.7$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.62 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 11c | 242.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c9…eac8backed Yes | 44c | 227.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 212.4$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 42c | 193.32$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.81 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 42c | 175$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.07 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 58c | 172$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.53 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 29c | 166.53$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 8c | 166.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…089fbacked No | 60c | 160.28$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.56 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 14c | 156.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 146.78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 71c | 144.41$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.77 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 33c | 131.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 46c | 126.17$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.13 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 125.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.78 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 124$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 57c | 121.18$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.66 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 32c | 119.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 40c | 116.04$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.62 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 101.67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 59c | 95.57$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.74 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 16c | 86.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 83.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 59c | 83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 18c | 75.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 43c | 72.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 41c | 65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 45c | 59.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 33c | 59.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 22c | 55.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…ef14backed Yes | 43c | 53.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 31c | 53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 55c | 50.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 60c | 49.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 54c | 49.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 58c | 48.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 60c | 48.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 58c | 48.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 46.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe549…0bcebacked Yes | 40c | 45.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 41c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 41c | 44.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 37c | 44.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0285…9050backed No | 60c | 44.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 59c | 43.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 39c | 41.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 41c | 37.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 39c | 37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 60c | 33.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 37c | 30.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 80c | 30.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…04c2backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed Yes | 42c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 27.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f17…2776backed Yes | 41c | 25.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 41c | 25.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…7b81backed Yes | 41c | 25.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1be5…9f44backed Yes | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 22.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7a…8465backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b0…7c9abacked No | 60c | 19.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 57c | 18.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x571d…4e76backed No | 66c | 18.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 60c | 16.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 16.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 70c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C or below on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.