Serie A · resolved market
Genoa CFC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95979fa900f73682916a26e752cc920b194cfe4ab1e1b7fb0fb5c5227c4d4b5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,116
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 34c | 11,159$3,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,779.64 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…612ebacked Over | 78c | 3,800$2,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.85 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 41c | 2,991$1,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,211.71 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Over | 38c | 2,476$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,527.91 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6b…b0b9backed Over | 72c | 1,300$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +5.3wins | +0.24per pick | 67cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x714a…9dacbacked Over | 64c | 817.28$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.22 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 38c | 790.05$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.05 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83c7…4078backed Over | 40c | 681.92$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.64 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 44c | 661.22$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.89 | 498 | 50.6%252 W · 246 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 70c | 640$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 147 | 48.3%71 W · 76 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 71c | 600$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 36c | 530.5$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.98 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 72c | 486.11$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.11 | 112 | 68.8%77 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Under | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…4806backed Over | 70c | 428.57$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 16c | 375$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 331 | 44.7%148 W · 183 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 54c | 312$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.62 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3e…c2a2backed Under | 18c | 278.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x995e…534cbacked Over | 60c | 248.81$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.03 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 54c | 177.22$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.77 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 47c | 106.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 54c | 104.35$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 72c | 97.22$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 180 | 55%99 W · 81 L | +15.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5562…3b41backed Under | 38c | 93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 54c | 87.65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 284 | 58.1%165 W · 119 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69db…283abacked Under | 49c | 81.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 35c | 74.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x555f…7782backed Over | 65c | 69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 18c | 56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 272 | 26.8%73 W · 199 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…5712backed Over | 72c | 44.21$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 70cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Under | 41c | 41.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…5f11backed Over | 80c | 37.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1172…9b72backed Over | 72c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d2…a008backed Over | 72c | 27.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d9…f193backed Over | 68c | 26.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d46…26d8backed Over | 74c | 25.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 59c | 23.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 289 | 31.8%92 W · 197 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Genoa CFC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 3.5this page
- Genoa CFC vs. SSC Napoli: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Genoa CFC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 1.5Over won
- Genoa CFC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5Over won
- Genoa CFC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.