Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95a44993a4f9854f52e6974f489b826c651519e115f9be4459a55d91b641a0a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,678
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,559
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,678 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 374.29$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 77c | 245.62$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.43 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa06f…cbadbacked Yes | 57c | 240$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.2 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd293…a4e3backed Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes | 51c | 176$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.37 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 147.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Yes | 52c | 131.52$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.52 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 125$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.22 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 42c | 108.12$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 40c | 99.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.44 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 26c | 98.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 92.73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.73 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 38c | 91.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 74.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 53c | 71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a6…bdb4backed Yes | 78c | 64.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 72cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 47c | 63.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 23c | 52.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 48c | 49.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 55c | 45.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 26c | 45.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ab…9c0ebacked Yes | 47c | 42.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…06fbbacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…03c2backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…cc7dbacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9217…076abacked No | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 48c | 39.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 49c | 37.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe961…fc41backed Yes | 30c | 37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe163…ec40backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 33.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 41c | 32.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x177b…6e61backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 29.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…2e40backed Yes | 47c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 63c | 28.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a8…552fbacked Yes | 61c | 28.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 40c | 26.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 46c | 26.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 59c | 25.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 58c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 50c | 23.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…65bbbacked No | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 64c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7f…ecd4backed Yes | 77c | 21.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f0…b231backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 56c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.