World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95af37ca65bd9f971d6d5908e51c2d939a4598038ce4a53ae7d994c8f711d741
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 70c | 3,401$2,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.66 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b76…6984backed No | 0c | 3,030$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 29c | 1,496$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.37 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb63…ef94backed No | 5c | 742.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2561…90c8backed No | 4c | 711.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c8…b823backed No | 12c | 566.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 76c | 555.29$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.71 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2474…ec29backed No | 6c | 281.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 14c | 264.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 15c | 251.84$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.36 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 54c | 249$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.81 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 31c | 235.72$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.9 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 10c | 202.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59f7…b535backed No | 80c | 175$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 14c | 157$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 48c | 152.57$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.7 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 14c | 150.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.94 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 143.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.94 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 142.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.47 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 17c | 138.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.74 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 9c | 131$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 18c | 120$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.95 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 13c | 115.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.49 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 20c | 107.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.74 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f7…1c8fbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.99 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 15c | 96.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe985…8cc8backed No | 13c | 96.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd66d…0884backed Yes | 17c | 93.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +198%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 91.27$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 17c | 89.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed Yes | 19c | 80$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 17c | 78.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.21 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 18c | 74.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.95 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…3a35backed No | 18c | 62.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 53.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 28c | 52.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 99 | 36.4%36 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4090…d441backed No | 71c | 50.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 79c | 49.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 52c | 48.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 44.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C or higher on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.