World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b6fe26a91bc60eb5c0c182bfe06be1a6826e01330e9560f6e4567f51287287e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,148
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,735
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,148 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 13c | 2,312$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.61 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 5c | 569.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 289.91$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.72 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 34c | 283.41$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.15 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 34c | 171.73$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.68 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 164.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 28c | 155.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.34 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 147.9$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd119…ebddbacked No | 64c | 141.46$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 38c | 139.56$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.03 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 9c | 138.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 120.7$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 116.37$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 113.07$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes | 35c | 107.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 35c | 103.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 36c | 99.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 33c | 98.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 22c | 91.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 67c | 87.14$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 84$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 67c | 79.87$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 34c | 77.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 68c | 68.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 70c | 61.92$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0868…5addbacked No | 68c | 58.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…28f0backed Yes | 34c | 58.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 57.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8d…0511backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7355…a4febacked Yes | 36c | 54.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3728…a76dbacked Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff7…dbfabacked No | 69c | 46.06$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 34c | 44.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 34c | 41.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 28c | 36.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7082…3a10backed Yes | 32c | 34.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 64c | 32.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 67c | 31.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 64c | 29.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 86 | 72.1%62 W · 24 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 61c | 29.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…1751backed No | 67c | 29.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 66c | 28.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 68c | 28.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 71c | 28.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 72c | 27.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 25.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237b…9f36backed No | 67c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6248…27f6backed No | 69c | 20.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a8…60ebbacked No | 66c | 18.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 71c | 17.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 64c | 15.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on May 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C or higher on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.