TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on May 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,908
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$50,295

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,908 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes6c2,333$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.5111039.1%43 W · 67 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b62…4349backed Yes1c2,180$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-75.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e10…a68abacked Yes35c580.69$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.5837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick26cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes4c432.74$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.358636%31 W · 55 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes41c274.96$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.812040.8%49 W · 71 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+27.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes4c270.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.17842.3%33 W · 45 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No72c202.85$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.916462.5%40 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes43c171.82$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.436330.2%19 W · 44 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9151…a93ebacked Yes30c168.03$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.412437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid+36.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes6c165$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.39405%2 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-48.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes34c155.56$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0344138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes41c146$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7610320.4%21 W · 82 L-6.7wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No64c145.79$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.1234354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes34c144.25$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2527521.8%60 W · 215 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No63c126.77$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.4652850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes10c125.26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5621844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes9c123.88$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1122111.3%25 W · 196 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes33c119.98$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.595030%15 W · 35 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes27c111.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3032639.3%128 W · 198 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ad3…e651backed Yes37c108.08$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No59c103.81$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.915064%32 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d07…2b94backed Yes39c102.06$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.332653.8%14 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes38c100.6$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.021926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26cf…c000backed Yes30c100.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.92737%10 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No62c98.98$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.8715558.7%91 W · 64 L+0.8wins0.00per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff06…c7d5backed No58c90.07$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.831250%6 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x04f0…12eebacked Yes35c85.53$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes37c85$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.557030%21 W · 49 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No65c84$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4135258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1465…e0dbbacked No62c80.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.641020%2 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-69.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No61c79.87$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.997058.6%41 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x43e0…28f0backed Yes40c75.3$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes31c74.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.37020%14 W · 56 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes29c72.76$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.110414.4%15 W · 89 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ba7…3d88backed No70c71.98$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.591384.6%11 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick68cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes27c70.04$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9132748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No61c70$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.431152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb074…9fb3backed Yes30c61.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.592650%13 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No64c60$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.368672.1%62 W · 24 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes18c57.82$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2544428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No63c55.09$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2411647.4%55 W · 61 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes23c55$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.654418.2%8 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-34.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes33c52.47$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4811636.2%42 W · 74 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ff7…dbfabacked No68c51.35$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.486100%6 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked Yes38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192250%11 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No66c49.65$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9818035.6%64 W · 116 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No64c48.93$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5418662.4%116 W · 70 L+13.0wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes36c45.23$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3718638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes26c44.93$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8126632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7355…a4febacked Yes37c40.05$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-35.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes31c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2316738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb532…cc17backed Yes38c39.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No61c39$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.281369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No65c37.91$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.123551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7082…3a10backed Yes28c37.02$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.23825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-49.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No73c37$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.996566.2%43 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa36b…1d89backed Yes45c36.27$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.341827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6548…9108backed Yes30c34.06$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2911053.6%59 W · 51 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x97bd…f2adbacked No57c32.7$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.062100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No63c31.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8210640.6%43 W · 63 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x558b…f41bbacked No63c30.86$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.31070%7 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.510864.8%70 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0957…77e8backed No70c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93948.7%19 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5157…fdbcbacked No57c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.92360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fbf…f003backed Yes42c28.6$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.011741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes38c28.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.631723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f5d…3384backed No73c27.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4875%6 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7903…57f6backed No59c26$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.766100%6 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x13e0…82f9backed No58c25.17$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.572369.6%16 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba63…36dcbacked Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6282…aaabbacked Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102365.2%15 W · 8 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+28.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x41fa…7cc4backed No68c24.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.93548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No63c24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.888937.1%33 W · 56 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2b9abacked No64c23.55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.55250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x932b…a773backed No59c23.24$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.531136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-34.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06dc…58a5backed No66c23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.81366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No65c22.39$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.847951.9%41 W · 38 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2930…3666backed No64c22$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.923100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No70c21.42$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4310039%39 W · 61 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+26.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf3c…ddd0backed No66c20.14$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.852466.7%16 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+374.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.23778.4%29 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick72cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No70c19.3$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.793268.8%22 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No57c17.65$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5918669.4%129 W · 57 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No63c17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2920065%130 W · 70 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb07e…e682backed No65c16$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.686100%6 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No66c15.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2714351.7%74 W · 69 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.