La Liga · resolved market
Elche CF vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95b17977b7de64662cea719f065e6a67935520860a437a99c3e76a0d9b2c3b3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Under | 52c | 54,295$28,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,795.43 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 47c | 23,141$10,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,876.16 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 45c | 21,517$9,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,617 | 4,753 | 47.1%2,238 W · 2,515 L | -21.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e73…c4ecbacked Over | 19c | 12,517$2,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,394.02 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…09cbbacked Over | 48c | 6,781$3,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,254.77 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 49c | 4,281$2,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,196.77 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +12.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +118.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 42c | 2,258$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.06 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 31c | 2,063$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.24 | 3,461 | 43%1,489 W · 1,972 L | +31.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Under | 63c | 634.92$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.92 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 38c | 516.77$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.9 | 1,662 | 43.7%727 W · 935 L | -23.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 17c | 400$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 317 | 45.7%145 W · 172 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 34c | 294.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +14.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x751a…9ea1backed Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 44c | 158.53$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.55 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ee…953bbacked Under | 80c | 156.39$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 20c | 155.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 31c | 154.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 75 | 73.3%55 W · 20 L | +20.9wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 232 | 52.6%122 W · 110 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b21…afbfbacked Under | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 53 | 66%35 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Under | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 78 | 65.4%51 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5c…d12abacked Over | 50c | 68.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd00…7a45backed Under | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Under | 59c | 58.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 169 | 62.1%105 W · 64 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf757…575dbacked Over | 27c | 40.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 67c | 40.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 1,018 | 53.1%541 W · 477 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b6…2c52backed Over | 47c | 37.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…eea2backed Over | 39c | 31.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 102 | 48%49 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 71c | 30.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad7…dfb7backed Under | 74c | 27.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…c5dcbacked Under | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Over | 46c | 22.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3270…c396backed Over | 50c | 20.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Over | 50c | 20.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 278 | 50%139 W · 139 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Elche CF vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 4.5this page
- Elche CF vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Elche CF vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- Elche CF vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- Elche CF vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)Villarreal CF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.