La Liga · resolved market
Elche CF vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56c02a70e2fd0d8c6cfe85da85f0242a39c68e00c895a413f523ac689223af3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 22c | 5,955$1,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,336.2 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb737…98b9backed Over | 77c | 4,524$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,023.53 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 66cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5f…4b52backed Over | 78c | 2,600$2,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 22c | 1,672$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.99 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 78c | 641.03$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.03 | 64 | 78.1%50 W · 14 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 22c | 530.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.5 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Over | 79c | 379.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.75 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 78c | 318.58$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.58 | 223 | 66.8%149 W · 74 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 317 | 45.7%145 W · 172 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 22c | 280.83$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.72 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 78c | 76.23$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 247 | 57.5%142 W · 105 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 22c | 61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 791 | 33%261 W · 530 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 21c | 59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 77c | 48.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Over | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 95 | 70.5%67 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 76cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa7…2e3cbacked Over | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1711…0528backed Over | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…0db0backed Over | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 79c | 22.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 35 | 77.1%27 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 79c | 19.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 117 | 69.2%81 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Elche CF vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5this page
- Elche CF vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Elche CF vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- Elche CF vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5Over won
- Elche CF vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)Villarreal CF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.