La Liga · resolved market
Elche CF vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee30ec1fbafe5e7296dc8cb099d249f5a4aef36ba2b1509e7b95add3a172aa6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Under | 70c | 49,835$35,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,000 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 30c | 39,675$11,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,863.88 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 4,046$1,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,139.91 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5677…2ce9backed Over | 55c | 1,756$973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.33 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a87…0f4abacked Under | 59c | 1,710$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 30c | 1,500$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050 | 387 | 29.5%114 W · 273 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 29c | 1,400$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991 | 234 | 52.6%123 W · 111 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Over | 31c | 800$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552 | 99 | 23.2%23 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 35c | 725.79$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.47 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 57c | 712.28$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.28 | 223 | 57%127 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 25c | 436.83$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.21 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Over | 32c | 392.34$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.79 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…1e76backed Over | 74c | 374.32$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.32 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Over | 30c | 300$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 290 | 53.4%155 W · 135 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +14.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 65c | 240$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.96 | 559 | 41.1%230 W · 329 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 52c | 190.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.41 | 75 | 73.3%55 W · 20 L | +20.9wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcd66…48e4backed Under | 18c | 170$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 30c | 138$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.6 | 351 | 48.4%170 W · 181 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 55c | 136.4$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 110 | 46.4%51 W · 59 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 42c | 104.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.39 | 204 | 52.5%107 W · 97 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9817…28bcbacked Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 31c | 95.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.28 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 50c | 91.92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 51c | 91.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 1,018 | 53.1%541 W · 477 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 40c | 88.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.88 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Over | 32c | 79.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.82 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Under | 45c | 76.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c1…b554backed Under | 21c | 69.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 56c | 69.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 791 | 33%261 W · 530 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed Over | 31c | 62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Under | 62c | 61.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Over | 30c | 55.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 45c | 52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 839 | 39.8%334 W · 505 L | -21.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32df…cce8backed Over | 41c | 51.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 52c | 44.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 168 | 65.5%110 W · 58 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc4…63f6backed Under | 43c | 39.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 52c | 35.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 240 | 47.9%115 W · 125 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Over | 32c | 31.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 71 | 54.9%39 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9e…32a9backed Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 56c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Elche CF vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5this page
- Elche CF vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Elche CF vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- Elche CF vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- Elche CF vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)Villarreal CF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.