Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95b488bbe17e9df21dd8e41e2168ad2dd4b9e059f5472b89f20f01d7b45403cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,822
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,822 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x79ad…4eedbacked Yes | 16c | 1,045$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.44 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd999…64cfbacked Yes | 22c | 1,010$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.57 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 911.4$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.47 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 2c | 659.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 5c | 633.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 6c | 611.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 14c | 485.65$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.13 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 77c | 322$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.06 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 79c | 270.7$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.83 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x371b…8786backed Yes | 14c | 229.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 25c | 211.88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.37 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ac…fce6backed Yes | 7c | 207.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 78c | 187.46$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.24 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 6c | 184.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 18c | 150.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 148.56$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 138.88$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 138.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 16c | 133.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 126.79$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 14c | 115.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 78c | 114.57$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 78c | 102.56$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 78.18$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 72.35$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 75c | 68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7d…6aeabacked Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked Yes | 22c | 52.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 50.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 78c | 44.54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd73…3cc0backed No | 79c | 37.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 69 | 68.1%47 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 74c | 22.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 95 | 73.7%70 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 79c | 13.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C or higher on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.