Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ab5e49a8ad17f80a64538a508c817bf19096d4692e9997116a8c7c94d57be47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2edc…a207backed Yes | 32c | 1,857$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.29 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 22c | 1,224$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.37 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82c2…5905backed Yes | 18c | 1,170$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.15 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f11…53b0backed Yes | 41c | 1,082$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.32 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 63c | 982.76$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.59 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…4eedbacked Yes | 39c | 838.73$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.67 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 10c | 766.73$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.96 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 761.08$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.93 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 36c | 740.06$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.5 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 66c | 709.93$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.03 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 11c | 688.24$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.22 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 529.15$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.54 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 44c | 523.85$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.63 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 510$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.47 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 59c | 400$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 38c | 397.91$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.43 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 51c | 339.14$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.69 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 64c | 335.52$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.53 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 7c | 320.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 6c | 301$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 39c | 271.3$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.56 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 7c | 270$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 38c | 260.89$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.44 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 12c | 237.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf435…0002backed Yes | 33c | 230.3$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked No | 66c | 227.27$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.2 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e9…8070backed Yes | 10c | 220.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 64c | 218$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.79 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 74c | 215.39$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.22 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed No | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.12 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ac…fce6backed Yes | 12c | 173.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 166.06$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 165$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.55 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 13c | 163.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 11c | 163.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 36c | 163.1$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.44 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 162.36$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.04 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed Yes | 38c | 158.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.11 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…1485backed Yes | 38c | 150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 18c | 136.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 68c | 130.8$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 129.19$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.39 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 12c | 122.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 11c | 118$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee54…a5eabacked No | 63c | 116.48$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 36c | 114.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 44c | 114.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 12c | 113.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed No | 62c | 112.1$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 15c | 111.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 101$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1a…2987backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…f8efbacked Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.21 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 99.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 99.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 95.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 64c | 94.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 23c | 93.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 63c | 87.61$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 23c | 85.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 63c | 79.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 62c | 79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882b…7564backed Yes | 39c | 76.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 72.35$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20fc…7ac9backed Yes | 40c | 70.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 61c | 70.11$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a23…932abacked Yes | 42c | 69.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…914fbacked Yes | 38c | 69.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 61c | 65.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9161…943ebacked Yes | 39c | 62.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 39c | 61.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 61c | 58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 62c | 52.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 38c | 52.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…be1ebacked No | 53c | 52.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…9d4cbacked Yes | 22c | 50.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 50.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 38c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 57c | 43.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 58c | 42.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 61c | 41.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 57c | 41.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea5…0b15backed Yes | 44c | 40.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7831…a330backed Yes | 28c | 40.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…7481backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7135…4c0dbacked Yes | 42c | 39.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 40c | 39.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371b…8786backed Yes | 27c | 37.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 34c | 31.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…bebcbacked No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C or higher on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.