Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e28c443561bafdf944e1e11b720028a90554c197b373d59f5a9250cb9eb52df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,524
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,524 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2edc…a207backed Yes | 54c | 2,450$1,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124.48 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 35c | 1,104$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.19 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 52c | 1,003$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.74 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 940.32$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.87 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 58c | 924.11$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.64 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 27c | 911.95$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.95 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 897.64$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.92 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 44c | 868.2$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.38 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…4eedbacked Yes | 31c | 841.12$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.24 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 53c | 676.93$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.07 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf325…f8e0backed Yes | 42c | 651.05$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.68 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 31c | 620.32$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.52 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82c2…5905backed Yes | 32c | 526$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.12 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 33c | 508.17$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.57 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 30c | 426.45$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.97 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 36c | 414.11$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.01 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 10c | 395.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 61c | 390.23$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.68 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 57c | 340$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.6 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 70c | 335.46$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.55 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 70c | 324$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.05 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…914fbacked Yes | 31c | 313.55$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.38 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f11…53b0backed Yes | 72c | 307.09$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.24 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 65c | 300$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 37c | 300$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.5 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 30c | 269.03$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.72 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 65c | 254.94$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.06 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 65c | 250$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.5 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 235$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 213.99$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.24 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 34c | 210.67$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.31 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 206.34$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 9c | 192.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 190.7$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.47 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 64c | 187.26$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.26 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 24c | 182.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 30c | 178.15$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.45 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 33c | 162.5$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 61c | 159.97$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.58 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 71c | 158$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.48 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 146.27$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.34 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 145.2$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.22 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 73c | 142$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.66 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 8c | 141.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed No | 8c | 138.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 58c | 130.62$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.15 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 127.82$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.56 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 10c | 127.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 72c | 124.57$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.44 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 71c | 120$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 119.69$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.55 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 75c | 118.58$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 66c | 118.58$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.66 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 35c | 110$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 10c | 108$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 107$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.46 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 75c | 104.48$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 101$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.67 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a48…08c5backed Yes | 72c | 100.18$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae79…5322backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 62c | 99.02$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 50c | 97.22$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85ac…fce6backed Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.59 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 73c | 89.29$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 59c | 86.76$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…b6ddbacked Yes | 64c | 77.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd01…e719backed Yes | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 72.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 35c | 71.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.45 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 28c | 71.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.42 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 37c | 70.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 67c | 70.12$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…0c9abacked Yes | 29c | 68.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 32c | 66.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 63c | 64.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 64.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 51c | 62.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 62.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7831…a330backed Yes | 28c | 62.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a23…932abacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…f8efbacked Yes | 53c | 56.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 63c | 55.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 77c | 54.21$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…f811backed Yes | 78c | 53.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 30c | 51.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 62c | 51.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 70c | 50.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 67c | 50.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 50.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…9558backed Yes | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 31c | 48.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C or higher on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.