MLB · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95c128b62823b7e6000d02162555ad001c63770cc8b9b94a63a6a4672599d2c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorado Rockiesof Minnesota Twins, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,672
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,672 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins | 45c | 3,195$1,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,436.64 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 2,018$1,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$949.28 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Minnesota Twins | 5c | 832.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Minnesota Twins | 9c | 674.18$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Colorado Rockies | 57c | 603.19$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.37 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Colorado Rockies | 66c | 402.33$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.4 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Minnesota Twins | 13c | 350.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Colorado Rockies | 57c | 343.12$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.54 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b54…d382backed Colorado Rockies | 56c | 339.2$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.25 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Minnesota Twins | 43c | 316.3$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.01 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Minnesota Twins | 44c | 250.2$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.09 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Colorado Rockies | 57c | 140.35$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 963 | 49%472 W · 491 L | -39.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Minnesota Twins | 45c | 112.95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Colorado Rockies | 57c | 104.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.02 | 657 | 49.2%323 W · 334 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x920b…fcfbbacked Colorado Rockies | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 166 | 48.8%81 W · 85 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Colorado Rockies | 57c | 90$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Minnesota Twins | 45c | 89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Minnesota Twins | 44c | 86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 82.91$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Colorado Rockies | 42c | 74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.82 | 419 | 36.5%153 W · 266 L | -31.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Minnesota Twins | 44c | 73.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 2,044 | 39.5%808 W · 1,236 L | -24.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Colorado Rockies | 56c | 73.23$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e0f3backed Minnesota Twins | 43c | 72.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Colorado Rockies | 56c | 56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Colorado Rockies | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Colorado Rockies | 54c | 47.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Minnesota Twins | 52c | 47.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Minnesota Twins | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Minnesota Twins | 62c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a48…9e7bbacked Colorado Rockies | 57c | 43.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 195 | 49.2%96 W · 99 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Colorado Rockies | 53c | 40.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Colorado Rockies | 38c | 40.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b81…988cbacked Minnesota Twins | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Minnesota Twins | 43c | 28.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Minnesota Twins | 43c | 28.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Colorado Rockies | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda48…5926backed Colorado Rockies | 52c | 23.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Colorado Rockies | 56c | 22.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 17.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-4.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-5.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-7.5)Colorado Rockies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.