Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95dc9ca69c3f61b662c3f60de66c7caeab2516fbfc6b86d7dcd8a095bec1f0a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,397
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,318
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,397 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 10c | 963.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.81 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 14c | 500$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.1 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 404.24$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.03 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 15c | 295.83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…cd73backed Yes | 22c | 261.15$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 242.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 7c | 212.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf08…d5a4backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Yes | 28c | 162.58$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 24c | 155.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 147.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 8c | 144$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 142.78$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 9c | 109.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 11c | 99.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 89.71$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4885…2236backed Yes | 15c | 75.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 21c | 71.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 75c | 66.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 58.37$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a68…13f0backed Yes | 25c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 48.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 76c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 38.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 76c | 32.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 75c | 30.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 78c | 25.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 78c | 25.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 76c | 23.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 75c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 21.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…afc6backed No | 77c | 20.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ba…16dcbacked No | 80c | 19.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 75cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 80c | 18.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 70c | 14.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.