Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb2ae887ec13416ebfbb10a7a13a85aadeea18806930a297efe0656f5399e2c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8ab…01cabacked Yes | 1c | 2,120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 5c | 1,215$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 74c | 843.83$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.57 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 18c | 573.27$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.01 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 75c | 417.48$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.15 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 77c | 407.68$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.73 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7f…cc08backed Yes | 38c | 390.6$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 25c | 324.85$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.07 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 33c | 302.66$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.59 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4885…2236backed Yes | 71c | 286.52$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.67 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 23c | 273.84$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.37 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 73c | 271$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.25 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 247.11$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.77 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 74c | 210.77$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.42 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 210.37$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.25 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f30…fd82backed Yes | 40c | 205.73$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.27 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.25 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…cd73backed Yes | 71c | 196.96$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 41c | 196.29$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.29 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 75c | 187$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.44 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 55c | 183.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.94 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 49c | 177.31$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.21 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…2aa0backed Yes | 75c | 175.72$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.32 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 44c | 170.75$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.29 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 38c | 168.02$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.64 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Yes | 30c | 167.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 47c | 166.45$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.48 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 60c | 162.6$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.55 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…9da0backed No | 49c | 159.93$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 79c | 157.67$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa50b…12c4backed No | 19c | 156.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.02 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 33c | 155.41$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…acf6backed No | 20c | 151.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.46 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…dff3backed No | 30c | 149.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 148.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 44c | 143$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.67 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 141.21$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 73c | 137.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 20c | 134.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.13 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 42c | 133.7$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.14 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 35c | 132$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 33c | 128.65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.18 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 55c | 128.48$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.14 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 67c | 126.19$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.84 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 115.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 70c | 110.09$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.47 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2299…493bbacked No | 35c | 106.55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 59c | 105.18$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 43c | 102.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 60c | 102.11$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.34 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 129 | 34.1%44 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 63c | 95.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 51c | 94.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 54c | 94.28$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 28c | 90.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 29c | 90.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 54c | 85.05$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 21c | 84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.45 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 18c | 81.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.63 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 62c | 80.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 65c | 78.4$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 68c | 77$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 76.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34c4…9c93backed Yes | 67c | 73.53$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked No | 22c | 70.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.49 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 34c | 69.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 31c | 69.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 20c | 69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.29 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 17c | 66.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.36 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 66.22$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 49c | 65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…bc30backed No | 21c | 63.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 58c | 63.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…6c9abacked Yes | 37c | 61.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 29c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…bf4dbacked No | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 28c | 59.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 21c | 58.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 58.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 71c | 58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2751…d0b1backed No | 37c | 58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 80c | 57.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…52adbacked Yes | 32c | 55.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a68…13f0backed No | 78c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 35c | 54.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 44c | 51.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 36c | 51.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7510…6cb0backed Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 22c | 49.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 49.04$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadf2…6599backed Yes | 60c | 45.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.