Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x664f56b26411b79c79899efb5a21d59c7242eb362289efd574d48ac7729f78fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,367
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,367 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 20c | 822.07$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.83 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 39c | 515.72$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.48 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 57c | 353.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.64 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d9…c3cbbacked No | 70c | 278.24$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.73 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 44c | 275.29$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 10c | 275.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 68c | 272.92$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.68 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 250$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 44c | 238$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.46 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 10c | 232.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 23c | 200.12$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 58c | 187.2$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.86 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 13c | 159.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 37c | 155$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Yes | 34c | 154.88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 20c | 152.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 152.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x19f6…09bcbacked Yes | 43c | 150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 39cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 62c | 149.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 18c | 148.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 147$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 140.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8699…f6bebacked Yes | 8c | 139.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +12.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4f30…fd82backed Yes | 37c | 135.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…bf4dbacked Yes | 44c | 129.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.72 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 17c | 125.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 121$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 14c | 106.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf2…6599backed Yes | 38c | 105.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 104.16$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf08…d5a4backed Yes | 38c | 102.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 16c | 102.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…6c9abacked Yes | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed No | 55c | 99.95$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 14c | 99.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 92$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…079bbacked No | 55c | 90.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 89$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 24c | 85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 26c | 77.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 26c | 69.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 66c | 65.34$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 37c | 63.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 60.16$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ff…b951backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 74c | 56.93$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 51.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a68…13f0backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…0fc4backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 31c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 23c | 49.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 45.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 45.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 73c | 44.21$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 64c | 44.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4101…d968backed Yes | 44c | 44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 25c | 41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 39c | 37.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba1…2b59backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +136.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 33c | 33.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 35c | 32.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 56c | 29.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 67c | 29.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x18c6…a105backed No | 54c | 29.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 66c | 29.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…b70dbacked Yes | 42c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 27.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…4e32backed No | 78c | 25.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked No | 63c | 25.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4386…59ddbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 67c | 24.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 23.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 66c | 22.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 59c | 19.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 75c | 18.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 61c | 17.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22ea…e40dbacked No | 74c | 16.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.