Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa0fa76d8ac27fced44bf04c5c19e8de097798cbd46fab945698f56c046e9b48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,613
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,613 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 42c | 1,753$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.77 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 69c | 1,034$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.59 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 19c | 811.72$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.96 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 17c | 480.46$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.89 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed Yes | 12c | 400$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 9c | 393.66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.66 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 350.02$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.36 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 51c | 319.25$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 297.27$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 27c | 286.61$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.1 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 8c | 284$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.28 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 76c | 271.94$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.84 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 20c | 265.82$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.84 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 247.35$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.41 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6061…0002backed Yes | 25c | 197.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.79 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…9da0backed Yes | 11c | 188.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.27 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd702…2087backed Yes | 20c | 175.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.12 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 61c | 170.24$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.99 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 163.68$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 51c | 162.23$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.89 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 66c | 157.95$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.43 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 64c | 155.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.69 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.94 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 73c | 140$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.6 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda89…6215backed Yes | 11c | 139.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.65 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes | 26c | 132$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.68 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 57c | 129.22$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 10c | 128.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.05 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 18c | 124.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.63 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 70c | 123.91$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.46 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…acf6backed Yes | 20c | 123.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.16 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 14c | 119.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 21c | 116.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.45 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa50b…12c4backed Yes | 18c | 109.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.1 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 16c | 106$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.1 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 12c | 103.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.77 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 13c | 103.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.54 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 13c | 102.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…5f64backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 12c | 99.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.98 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 20c | 95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.35 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 12c | 92.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.21 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 17c | 87.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.99 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 60c | 87.31$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 14c | 85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.1 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 51c | 81.64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 79.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 28c | 77.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.83 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked Yes | 15c | 74.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.1 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 28c | 72.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 57c | 72.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 21c | 70.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 64c | 70.14$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…2411backed Yes | 17c | 68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.44 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 17c | 67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 39c | 65.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.46 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 45c | 62.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 20c | 61.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1253…2129backed No | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 80c | 60$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed Yes | 25c | 53.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 76c | 51.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c56…87acbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb52…52c9backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +183.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 23c | 48.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…bc30backed Yes | 21c | 48.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 41c | 42.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 66c | 32.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…a73bbacked Yes | 42c | 31.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57fe…94f9backed Yes | 67c | 29.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 66c | 28.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 77c | 18.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0021…17f3backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.