Cricket · resolved market
T20 World Cup, East Asia-Pacific Qualifier, Regional Final: Papua New Guinea vs Samoa
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x960d4efb102d05ea9f3a559ba690c1651e26c100c914abedaf0b2cfac6759914
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Papua New Guineaof Papua New Guinea, Samoa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Cricketevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,969
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Cricket is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Cricket | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Papua New Guinea | 73c | 1,746$1,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.19 | 641 | 43.1%276 W · 365 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Samoa | 27c | 1,033$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.39 | 636 | 46.4%295 W · 341 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Samoa | 34c | 599.91$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.68 | 569 | 37.1%211 W · 358 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Samoa | 23c | 557.05$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.4 | 319 | 40.1%128 W · 191 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd348…0265backed Papua New Guinea | 69c | 505.49$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.33 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Papua New Guinea | 73c | 447.62$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.43 | 310 | 27.4%85 W · 225 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Samoa | 8c | 433.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 369 | 8.7%32 W · 337 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Samoa | 19c | 398.08$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.63 | 119 | 37.8%45 W · 74 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Samoa | 29c | 353.71$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.73 | 505 | 47.5%240 W · 265 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Papua New Guinea | 73c | 330.67$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.43 | 423 | 44.2%187 W · 236 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Samoa | 13c | 297.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 97 | 35.1%34 W · 63 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Samoa | 22c | 288.33$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 99 | 33.3%33 W · 66 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd69…91e4backed Papua New Guinea | 71c | 280.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Papua New Guinea | 77c | 226.23$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb03…5ae4backed Samoa | 32c | 199.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -6.4wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Samoa | 25c | 196$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 310 | 50%155 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Samoa | 24c | 178$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 271 | 41.3%112 W · 159 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Samoa | 19c | 159.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 89 | 25.8%23 W · 66 L | -9.6wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -53%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Papua New Guinea | 77c | 157.58$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 249 | 40.6%101 W · 148 L | -15.6wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22f3…6c94backed Papua New Guinea | 67c | 118.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 360 | 47.5%171 W · 189 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Samoa | 21c | 111.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 164 | 16.5%27 W · 137 L | -22.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Papua New Guinea | 78c | 97$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 763 | 51.6%394 W · 369 L | +29.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0787…43d5backed Samoa | 48c | 91.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4579…8f46backed Papua New Guinea | 70c | 78$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…c264backed Papua New Guinea | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…cfdebacked Papua New Guinea | 73c | 65.73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffd…74bfbacked Papua New Guinea | 68c | 61.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -53%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Papua New Guinea | 80c | 57.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 654 | 51.1%334 W · 320 L | +26.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x147f…5f7bbacked Samoa | 34c | 54.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Samoa | 30c | 37.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 419 | 47.5%199 W · 220 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…4b61backed Papua New Guinea | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Papua New Guinea | 79c | 25.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 136 | 47.8%65 W · 71 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae0…e547backed Papua New Guinea | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Cricket and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.