Us Politics · resolved market
U.S. forces in Gaza before April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x961b81e093d72e41855131ee700d7e649a1b627cae26fa1b639897f79b51f62d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $273,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $204,305
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $273,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe932…0f05backed Yes | 2c | 40,057$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.29 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x119d…85abbacked Yes | 4c | 4,554$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 4,159$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.54 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 1c | 3,897$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.69 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97c…03f4backed Yes | 8c | 3,531$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 0c | 3,442$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5632…748dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,200$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x207a…6fecbacked Yes | 5c | 1,524$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.51 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x361f…0fc2backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,249$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7a…b1fdbacked Yes | 4c | 1,146$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…6a0dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,145$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e63…9313backed Yes | 4c | 1,100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 5c | 999.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Yes | 4c | 999.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 927.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 2c | 862.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 3c | 788.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e6…b1afbacked Yes | 5c | 758.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…a4a0backed Yes | 7c | 733.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…c8b4backed Yes | 3c | 605.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b9…525abacked Yes | 7c | 604.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 17cpaid | +276.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed Yes | 5c | 598$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabe9…09b5backed Yes | 5c | 508.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 7c | 446.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0735…005dbacked Yes | 5c | 434.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6936…cd51backed Yes | 5c | 426.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68bc…4bb1backed Yes | 7c | 417.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 5c | 371.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…8496backed Yes | 7c | 360$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Yes | 6c | 350$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 325.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e16…84d7backed Yes | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2328…5adabacked Yes | 7c | 240$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c83…9015backed Yes | 5c | 204.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…44c8backed Yes | 8c | 197$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…4f2bbacked Yes | 7c | 194.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd1…cf8dbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…512abacked No | 63c | 54.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.