Olympics · resolved market
Will Scotty James (AUS) win the gold medal for Snowboard Halfpipe - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9622466ad3c0e231ee60964047f8eda1734dfacb88c48a343ab7f0a15f502c75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,631$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 244 | 8.2%20 W · 224 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d58…1aeabacked Yes | 63c | 1,291$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.72 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 38c | 860.7$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.42 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae6b…4fa8backed Yes | 68c | 487.17$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab85…81e6backed No | 34c | 360$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.6 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 35c | 290.78$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.47 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 39c | 183.85$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.06 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf479…0fe3backed No | 37c | 164.87$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.87 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +135.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 30c | 152.84$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.13 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 59c | 128.94$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 39c | 120$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Yes | 62c | 109.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Yes | 63c | 103.48$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.88 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 31c | 101.16$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.34 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 63c | 97.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…ce76backed Yes | 68c | 64.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…f842backed Yes | 72c | 62.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 46c | 60.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 34c | 59.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdb…75dbbacked No | 44c | 56.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -81%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f0…2469backed Yes | 68c | 56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f0…a35cbacked Yes | 72c | 46.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…e9a6backed Yes | 71c | 39.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 63c | 35.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b8…019ebacked Yes | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…9a86backed No | 56c | 32.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5467…ffffbacked Yes | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 55c | 28.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…ce30backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4d…5ff1backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc23…2164backed Yes | 69c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89d1…55b8backed No | 80c | 15.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.02 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Scotty James (AUS) win the gold medal for Snowboard Halfpipe - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?this page
- Will Ayumu Hirano (JPN) win the gold medal for Snowboard Halfpipe - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Chase Josey (USA) win the gold medal for Snowboard Halfpipe - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Ruka Hirano (JPN) win the gold medal for Snowboard Halfpipe - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Ryusei Yamada (JPN) win the gold medal for Snowboard Halfpipe - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Yuto Totsuka (JPN) win the gold medal for Snowboard Halfpipe - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.