MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x963d1450020923adfd53e269d9ebcbb61d97d5b511c9d264d332fcae4d273feb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $151,363
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $220,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,363 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 58c | 69,085$40,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,053.31 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 42c | 38,730$16,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,294.67 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 42c | 20,034$8,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,380.17 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 42c | 10,020$4,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,225.62 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 62c | 5,317$3,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,045.95 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 61c | 3,000$1,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,830 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2887…a552backed Over | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 5cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Under | 59c | 1,711$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.53 | 206 | 48.1%99 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 53c | 681.72$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.31 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 49c | 600$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.9 | 940 | 34.3%322 W · 618 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Under | 51c | 531.32$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.95 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 43c | 311.53$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.42 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5de…33b5backed Over | 47c | 295.74$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…d0e5backed Over | 10c | 276.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 102 | 8.8%9 W · 93 L | -31.9wins | -0.31per pick | 40cpaid | -82%equal weight | 22-0.25 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 44c | 274.17$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.69 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…eeb6backed Over | 45c | 261.25$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.35 | 159 | 42.8%68 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 228.21$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.39 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed Over | 50c | 218.88$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.39 | 165 | 43%71 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…375cbacked Over | 14c | 207.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +33%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 52c | 189.58$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.58 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 52c | 188.46$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 58c | 187$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.93 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Under | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 32c | 140.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…5733backed Under | 47c | 120.31$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.73 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 53c | 118.91$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.03 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…bce9backed Over | 54c | 110.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Under | 47c | 99.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.62 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 78c | 79.63$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37b9…b244backed Over | 50c | 65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 52c | 63.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf5…829cbacked Over | 39c | 58.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…88e7backed Over | 44c | 56.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb62f…b2fabacked Over | 39c | 53.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Over | 44c | 49.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 49c | 49.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 47c | 48.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…a9cfbacked Under | 57c | 42.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Under | 46c | 39.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Under | 44c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb2…82e5backed Under | 46c | 28.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 59c | 22.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Under | 67c | 19.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.