MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc705ff849e8aae4561bd381ed4b459c566cce75585308a28d389f56584414817
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,568
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 42c | 27,776$11,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,610.31 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 54c | 23,570$12,638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,931.88 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Under | 54c | 20,000$10,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,799.98 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 53c | 18,237$9,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,531.01 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 49c | 5,286$2,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,698.41 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 2,682$1,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,316 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 55c | 1,327$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.88 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 48c | 824.93$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.93 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 59c | 581.71$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.05 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…509dbacked Under | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 43c | 204.21$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.74 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 55c | 182.44$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 54c | 157.29$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.68 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 45c | 153.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.86 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…eeb6backed Over | 58c | 146.88$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.28 | 159 | 42.8%68 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 52c | 132.22$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.76 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 45c | 118.7$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.7 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 46c | 106.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.76 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 55c | 103.21$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…87b5backed Under | 46c | 99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…a4e7backed Under | 53c | 94.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Under | 44c | 78.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 55c | 68.38$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8772…982dbacked Under | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Over | 38c | 62.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Over | 48c | 56.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 44c | 53.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…88e7backed Over | 64c | 40.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Under | 45c | 40.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 55c | 31.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf5…829cbacked Over | 59c | 22.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 4.5this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.