Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96504a95725ce28f8fb4148d17fd65e7ccc5ee36ad0855d4618724a23b2ebaee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ecuadorof Netherlands, Ecuador
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,731
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,196
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,731 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Ecuador | 65c | 5,197$3,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800.96 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Netherlands | 31c | 2,161$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.73 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Netherlands | 34c | 1,097$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.72 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…7e41backed Ecuador | 67c | 1,052$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked Netherlands | 34c | 600$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 235 | 40.4%95 W · 140 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Netherlands | 35c | 545.42$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.9 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Netherlands | 36c | 400$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Netherlands | 35c | 319.77$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.56 | 508 | 50%254 W · 254 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Netherlands | 21c | 304.59$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.52 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Netherlands | 32c | 246$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.72 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Netherlands | 34c | 228$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.52 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0efb…016cbacked Netherlands | 34c | 213$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.42 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Ecuador | 65c | 205.09$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.13 | 368 | 50.3%185 W · 183 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Netherlands | 11c | 181.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Ecuador | 66c | 157.94$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.7 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Netherlands | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x155d…3ec8backed Netherlands | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 255 | 32.9%84 W · 171 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Netherlands | 37c | 90$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 470 | 49.4%232 W · 238 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…3efebacked Netherlands | 57c | 88.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Netherlands | 34c | 84.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…abcbbacked Ecuador | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Ecuador | 44c | 54.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 161 | 16.8%27 W · 134 L | -16.9wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a109backed Netherlands | 46c | 52.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6317…9c45backed Netherlands | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Netherlands | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 481 | 47.8%230 W · 251 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Ecuador | 64c | 41.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Netherlands | 34c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…1700backed Netherlands | 34c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…31c3backed Netherlands | 35c | 39.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 154 | 48.1%74 W · 80 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Netherlands | 34c | 39.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 246 | 53.3%131 W · 115 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x810d…6080backed Netherlands | 34c | 39.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Netherlands | 34c | 39.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Netherlands | 34c | 39.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1030…dd7abacked Netherlands | 34c | 38.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 109 | 58.7%64 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Netherlands | 34c | 38.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…d37abacked Netherlands | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 181 | 39.2%71 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Ecuador | 61c | 38.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 407 | 36.6%149 W · 258 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Ecuador | 64c | 33.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ecuador | 42c | 32.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 831 | 53.3%443 W · 388 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked Ecuador | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6da7…762abacked Netherlands | 35c | 28.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Netherlands | 54c | 21.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 374 | 58.8%220 W · 154 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Ecuador | 74c | 19.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 876 | 51.1%448 W · 428 L | +25.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Ecuador | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Ecuador | 67c | 16.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)this page
- Netherlands vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Netherlands vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5Over won
- Netherlands vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5Under won
- Netherlands vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5Under won
- Netherlands vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)Netherlands won
- Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)Ecuador won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.