Tennis · resolved market
Campinas: Victor Braga vs Juan Pablo Varillas
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96552011d635d4828f0f2c24a38d551138ce2962ff265bd33734d5555e0955bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Juan Pablo Varillasof Victor Braga, Juan Pablo Varillas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,006
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,006 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Victor Braga | 5c | 8,333$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.25 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Victor Braga | 5c | 4,840$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.08 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Victor Braga | 4c | 4,705$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.28 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Victor Braga | 9c | 2,403$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.51 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…934dbacked Victor Braga | 5c | 2,132$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.67 | 307 | 15.6%48 W · 259 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Victor Braga | 1c | 1,856$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…ca81backed Victor Braga | 6c | 1,582$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.93 | 217 | 20.3%44 W · 173 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Victor Braga | 4c | 1,492$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…2b75backed Victor Braga | 40c | 1,300$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +166.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Victor Braga | 7c | 1,204$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.78 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Victor Braga | 3c | 872.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ca…cccbbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 60c | 780.8$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.32 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | +13.3wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Victor Braga | 12c | 701.75$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.51 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…941bbacked Victor Braga | 7c | 674.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Victor Braga | 11c | 488.54$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Victor Braga | 9c | 309.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 2,118 | 55.9%1,185 W · 933 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4d…71c6backed Victor Braga | 7c | 271.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Victor Braga | 9c | 227.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5572…f01ebacked Victor Braga | 11c | 220.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 579 | 53.7%311 W · 268 L | +19.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46ff…6672backed Victor Braga | 6c | 183.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 155 | 12.9%20 W · 135 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Victor Braga | 7c | 151.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 653 | 46.4%303 W · 350 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe031…5c08backed Victor Braga | 9c | 142.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 735 | 49.8%366 W · 369 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Victor Braga | 13c | 91.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 221 | 53.4%118 W · 103 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa548…8149backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 60c | 88.45$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.