Fifa International · resolved market
Türkiye vs. Romania: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x966152a8100f5d7a193550bd56f89a82c0a4555bc792d04f87192227ed73d47d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,689
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,689 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 8c | 3,909$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.77 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 10c | 2,557$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.66 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 21c | 1,249$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.85 | 116 | 32.8%38 W · 78 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 10c | 1,019$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.61 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…7c12backed Over | 18c | 801.34$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0dc…e78abacked Over | 18c | 720$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacba…5676backed Over | 18c | 718.8$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1409…ffb3backed Over | 18c | 647.98$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 21c | 552.38$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 308 | 36%111 W · 197 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 11c | 510.45$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 454 | 28%127 W · 327 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked Under | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 335 | 55.5%186 W · 149 L | +19.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 19c | 359.47$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.3 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 10c | 205.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61d8…30d9backed Under | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6f08backed Under | 80c | 126.25$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 224 | 66.1%148 W · 76 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Under | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 255 | 54.5%139 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac14…415abacked Over | 14c | 124.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b54…db07backed Over | 20c | 103.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 79c | 101.98$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f6…1c49backed Over | 21c | 95.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…236ebacked Over | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac0d…2011backed Under | 80c | 91.58$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 79c | 81.72$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 368 | 50.3%185 W · 183 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa1…bd9bbacked Over | 19c | 71.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…87d5backed Over | 20c | 60.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccd…1ec9backed Over | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 19c | 53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac7e…4768backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x261c…d49dbacked Under | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 436 | 53.7%234 W · 202 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…1d57backed Under | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 79cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Türkiye vs. Romania: O/U 4.5this page
- Türkiye vs. Romania: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Türkiye vs. Romania: O/U 1.5Under won
- Türkiye vs. Romania: O/U 2.5Under won
- Türkiye vs. Romania: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.