Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x967b6698f2946ba9e9d59a035493efbe06be3bf0c040a011c1f60e20180eb239
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,721
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,721 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed Yes | 6c | 2,705$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.2 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 22c | 742.53$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.3 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 654.11$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.7 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 484.73$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…1ad2backed Yes | 21c | 453.57$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 32c | 423.17$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.28 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x251f…0a14backed Yes | 29c | 390.52$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.3 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 29c | 325.11$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.86 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 302.67$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.04 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Yes | 44c | 205.45$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.77 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 75c | 195.9$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 33c | 194.25$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.68 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…120ebacked Yes | 43c | 188.58$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.93 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 27c | 181.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x483d…65f2backed Yes | 9c | 178.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed No | 78c | 177.03$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.09 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 169.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4464…b76dbacked Yes | 26c | 158.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 29c | 157.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 25c | 147.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…5eafbacked Yes | 21c | 145.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 22c | 144.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…a498backed Yes | 13c | 143.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 9c | 136.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 25c | 129.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 119$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…0859backed No | 79c | 110.4$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 37c | 110$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…493cbacked No | 75c | 105.15$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 17c | 103.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 103$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3a…08d7backed Yes | 26c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…e9f9backed Yes | 44c | 90.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 26c | 87.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…06bebacked Yes | 26c | 83.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…b153backed Yes | 23c | 81.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…4517backed Yes | 27c | 81.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed No | 68c | 79.41$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb6…2992backed Yes | 14c | 76.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 16c | 75.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…f6b9backed Yes | 21c | 73.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 26c | 71.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a9…6747backed Yes | 45c | 69.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 77c | 67.14$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e5…63d3backed No | 64c | 62.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked Yes | 24c | 61.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 22c | 61.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 60.44$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 57.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 78c | 57.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77d4…3983backed Yes | 40c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 78c | 53.73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ef…3e88backed Yes | 30c | 50.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 29c | 50.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa287…14a8backed No | 79c | 45.54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 75cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…148cbacked Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 74c | 44.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 69c | 41.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb746…32c1backed Yes | 30c | 40.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 68c | 38.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a62…ace3backed No | 74c | 37.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 35.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 64c | 34.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed59…6b7cbacked No | 75c | 32.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 70c | 31.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 75c | 28.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb11…73f2backed No | 78c | 25.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 68c | 22.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked No | 70c | 22.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 48c | 21.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…52e8backed No | 59c | 21.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked No | 79c | 19.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd44…28ccbacked No | 66c | 15.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 75c | 15.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 71c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 14.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or below on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on April 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.