Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d415980916c8c6f93fce9c39ddc6bbfe5cbe469e47ef4345fdce822c57c4c09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x696f…8f04backed Yes | 1c | 3,882$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 15c | 1,180$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.62 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe829…4cfcbacked Yes | 4c | 641.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 5c | 546.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 7c | 530.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc3…b884backed Yes | 22c | 459.6$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.15 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 15c | 415.3$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 18c | 365.43$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.52 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 79c | 340.56$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.95 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…923fbacked No | 80c | 322.99$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.89 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed Yes | 17c | 316.39$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeac…2970backed Yes | 17c | 312.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.94 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…a498backed Yes | 32c | 302.05$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.86 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 9c | 299.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 296.15$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.66 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 24c | 260.26$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.93 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 241.67$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.71 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 24c | 239.28$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.34 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 72c | 235.31$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.37 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 231.92$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.31 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 29c | 219.32$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.98 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 208.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed No | 78c | 206.64$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf565…cb93backed Yes | 37c | 205.87$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.47 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed Yes | 7c | 204.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b7…4834backed Yes | 38c | 197.43$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.02 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.27per pick | 38cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4c…0b31backed Yes | 15c | 188.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf79…92b6backed Yes | 37c | 187.29$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -38%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9d…6804backed Yes | 37c | 187.29$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 18c | 162.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17dd…056abacked Yes | 13c | 155.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9967…7a31backed Yes | 13c | 152.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 21c | 151.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 73c | 148.86$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed No | 70c | 129.99$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 14c | 129.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd44…28ccbacked Yes | 30c | 124.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…4fc6backed Yes | 27c | 123.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 77c | 119.53$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 75c | 117.22$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Yes | 16c | 104.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e24…7e71backed No | 73c | 102.16$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e08…59d2backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed Yes | 22c | 97.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…72f8backed Yes | 28c | 94.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed Yes | 19c | 91.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 19c | 90.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 19c | 83.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 68c | 83.6$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 18c | 80.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce7e…4019backed Yes | 17c | 78.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 77.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x11cb…4f5ebacked Yes | 24c | 77.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 27c | 73.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 69c | 72.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 71c | 70.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 22c | 70.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 77c | 69.43$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8af…603bbacked Yes | 36c | 66.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 30c | 66.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 76c | 65.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes | 22c | 63.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 60.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…cd72backed No | 76c | 59.23$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 29c | 57.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 24c | 57.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6517…573fbacked No | 66c | 55.36$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 25c | 54.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked No | 80c | 53.03$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 37c | 51.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 22c | 49.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…85f7backed Yes | 28c | 49.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30d…a622backed Yes | 27c | 48.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ef…3e88backed Yes | 28c | 48.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes | 35c | 48.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…e9f9backed Yes | 35c | 47.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed No | 73c | 47.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8246…1a44backed No | 77c | 46.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 27c | 46.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 62c | 44.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1da0…c9e1backed No | 73c | 39.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf8…e39ebacked Yes | 36c | 39.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 78c | 38.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 77c | 37.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 36c | 33.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2d…d7f8backed No | 77c | 33.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 64c | 31.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x268e…dfaebacked No | 64c | 29.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a9…3003backed No | 77c | 29.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a62…ace3backed No | 75c | 27.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 72c | 27.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x80a1…a453backed No | 77c | 23.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa542…3f6cbacked No | 63c | 22.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb345…23d5backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8be9…845fbacked No | 72c | 20.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or below on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on April 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.