Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd64c883137197013ea27400cfffce8cf13fbb3e016a56c6d0a434bd82ca6aaa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $302,864
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $306,093
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $302,864 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd9d…bc2ebacked No | 0c | 239,210$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd84f…54c9backed No | 2c | 903.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…947cbacked No | 2c | 855.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 7cpaid | +318.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 68c | 778.74$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.4 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed No | 41c | 696.7$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.27 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…7da3backed Yes | 40c | 641$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.59 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.6wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +176.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4634…d158backed Yes | 63c | 612.93$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.26 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 19c | 608.9$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.34 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 547.27$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 37c | 530.77$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.9 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 58c | 480.52$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.41 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 59c | 455.23$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.22 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…a498backed Yes | 24c | 450.56$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.59 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 34c | 408.4$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.61 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63ad…c072backed Yes | 78c | 374.29$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.77 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 302.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.02 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 14c | 292.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 12c | 274.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 35c | 235.62$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.24 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…cec9backed No | 9c | 229.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed No | 8c | 226.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 36c | 221.23$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.52 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 33c | 213.14$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.18 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 212.11$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 45c | 199.94$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.97 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 40c | 166.51$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.16 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…b3ccbacked No | 69c | 160.19$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.33 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 32c | 145.15$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 33c | 132.75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.2 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80b3…e5d9backed Yes | 39c | 131.39$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.57 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 70c | 125.37$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.26 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed Yes | 16c | 124.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.56 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 123.2$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.31 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94aa…975abacked No | 10c | 119.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 51c | 115.43$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 38c | 109.18$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.32 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0d…2359backed No | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes | 35c | 107.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.67 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…493cbacked No | 62c | 105.19$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.22 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd44…28ccbacked Yes | 36c | 102.71$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 63c | 101.4$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.94 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e08…59d2backed Yes | 55c | 100.37$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 99.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeeac…2970backed Yes | 79c | 98.89$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf5…ffa3backed No | 67c | 98.8$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc03…bd4dbacked Yes | 63c | 97.25$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 53c | 96.35$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.28 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed No | 14c | 91.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aae…e7a0backed Yes | 38c | 89.76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.41 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdec0…3baabacked Yes | 79c | 84.53$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 74c | 84.19$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a71…0dcdbacked Yes | 62c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 62c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 62c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a92…b344backed Yes | 62c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 60c | 75.59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1907…ac1abacked Yes | 33c | 71.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb6…2992backed Yes | 22c | 70.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.12 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 70.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.49 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 80c | 69.77$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…dfa5backed No | 17c | 65.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 63.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.63 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 38c | 61.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 59.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0038…ad0dbacked Yes | 69c | 59.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 55c | 59.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…eec7backed Yes | 52c | 59.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 37c | 57.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 51c | 56.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 24c | 55.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5e…aa95backed Yes | 19c | 54.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.14 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e53…254cbacked Yes | 34c | 54.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 39c | 53.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ef…3e88backed Yes | 32c | 51.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d2…ef4dbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed No | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 59c | 49.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 67c | 48.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 39c | 48.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 42c | 47.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a62…ace3backed No | 66c | 47.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked No | 78c | 44.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 54c | 43.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e6…762ebacked Yes | 72c | 42.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 42.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed Yes | 65c | 41.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc633…415abacked Yes | 62c | 39.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…148cbacked Yes | 38c | 39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 38.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Yes | 57c | 38.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…fda6backed Yes | 62c | 37.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d61…98e5backed Yes | 63c | 36.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 38c | 36.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x287f…5ec5backed Yes | 71c | 35.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 43c | 35.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30d…a622backed Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…378fbacked No | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a7…d16bbacked Yes | 76c | 34.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes | 76c | 34.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or below on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.