Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96ae6de357c289bffdfcc2d182ae26cfb2644fea6eae8c4dc125934af324446d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 51c | 657.33$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.66 | 101 | 84.2%85 W · 16 L | +26.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 74c | 615.83$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.29 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf85…4f3fbacked No | 46c | 569.2$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 8c | 514.09$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.71 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 28c | 471.42$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.42 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 15c | 452.18$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.83 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 7c | 448.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.78 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 28c | 391.71$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.23 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 27c | 368.09$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 354.87$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.56 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 3c | 331.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.87 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 29c | 320.22$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.44 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 12c | 310$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.25 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 73c | 307.32$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.71 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 301$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.65 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…58f9backed Yes | 16c | 279.61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.23 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 37c | 262.65$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedee…7139backed Yes | 35c | 247.45$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.65 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 23c | 193.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.45 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe87…5ac1backed No | 58c | 176.62$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +76%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.45 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 19c | 147.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.72 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 66c | 140$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.23 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 72c | 121.98$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.09 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 41c | 121.92$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.58 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 21c | 118.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.1 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 53c | 108.87$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.23 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 15c | 100.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.2 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b6…b19dbacked Yes | 30c | 98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 22c | 94.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.06 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 23c | 94.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 11c | 89.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.73 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 72c | 64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8f…1181backed Yes | 26c | 63.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4a…a5a5backed Yes | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 35 | 94.3%33 W · 2 L | +13.8wins | +0.40per pick | 55cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 76+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc7…dda1backed Yes | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +6.9wins | +0.38per pick | 51cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb9…1879backed Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 43 | 93%40 W · 3 L | +14.6wins | +0.34per pick | 59cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9d…e9f4backed Yes | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 33 | 90.9%30 W · 3 L | +10.4wins | +0.32per pick | 59cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 57.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 33c | 55.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 27c | 54.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 45c | 46.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 59c | 42.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked No | 72c | 41.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 69c | 36.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4367…f48dbacked Yes | 42c | 32.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 46c | 31.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 61c | 31.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 72c | 27.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 67c | 27.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked No | 65c | 21.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 73c | 20.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fae…94debacked No | 71c | 15.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 102°F or higher on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.