TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,587
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,438

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,587 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbb71…3e7bbacked Yes0c5,025$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154429.5%13 W · 31 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes18c543.26$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.985,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes55c520.3$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.94,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes5c487.65$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.911,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No32c365.28$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.6945162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No31c349.25$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.054,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes24c336.17$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.9417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8c…e802backed No80c326.81$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.439338.7%36 W · 57 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes21c305.98$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.261,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab36…38dabacked Yes71c302.94$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.293745.9%17 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d33…6be3backed Yes39c250$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.6914236.6%52 W · 90 L-0.6wins0.00per pick37cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No34c233.59$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.354,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes67c227.14$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.4265749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No36c210.3$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.8863323.9%151 W · 482 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes62c197.87$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.1254043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes23c177.67$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.61,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf6f…80adbacked No76c158.62$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.621573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick65cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xab18…467dbacked Yes61c152.12$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.8813843.5%60 W · 78 L+14.2wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes14c150$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No33c140$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.561,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c127.97$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.882,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes27c121.49$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.658,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No42c115$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.725,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No64c110.62$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.13,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes57c110.24$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc62d…5577backed Yes30c103.57$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4325038%95 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes38c90.96$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.744536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed No47c81.89$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7468645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes55c80.23$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.461,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes44c80$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.326344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked No29c80$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.861365.3%400 W · 213 L+43.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No27c75.73$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.3112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No48c75$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.871,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No50c72.62$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.232,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1297…1fb0backed Yes69c69.79$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.115158.8%30 W · 21 L-0.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes28c67.64$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1366926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No25c64$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0252155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes35c61.91$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.381,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes24c61.62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No64c61.53$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.944,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedee…7139backed Yes57c61.48$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.086330.2%19 W · 44 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes28c60.69$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.031,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb427…4c62backed No80c60.2$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2822350.7%113 W · 110 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No78c58.82$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9442976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef5e…b385backed No78c58.33$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.983161.3%19 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes66c58.03$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.361,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x139e…a5debacked Yes26c57.35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9924951.4%128 W · 121 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed No29c55.45$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.231,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc80f…6147backed Yes20c55.09$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2652533.7%177 W · 348 L+22.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No74c55$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.44,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No66c53.81$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.423158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed Yes79c53$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4225362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x87c6…58f9backed No31c52.33$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.1111019.1%21 W · 89 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid+23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa39e…fa48backed No69c52.06$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.181266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcca3…7450backed No38c51.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2342643.2%184 W · 242 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed Yes25c51.15$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.637942.2%160 W · 219 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes72c50$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3624046.7%112 W · 128 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d45…652abacked No20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403551.4%18 W · 17 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x973e…15c2backed No73c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.717364.7%112 W · 61 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick71cpaid-10.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x58e6…9ac7backed No62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1919753.8%106 W · 91 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.992,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x39c9…b108backed No77c49.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.534457%196 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No79c49.47$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.592,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c45$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.552,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b95…898abacked No65c44.67$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6630168.8%207 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes69c42.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6135742.9%153 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xccd0…f4cabacked Yes78c42.2$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x831b…dcf3backed No39c41.92$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.71030%3 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-32.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No60c41.67$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6783360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes58c41.41$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.021,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes29c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.61,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a32…b4c2backed Yes80c40$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.93450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-35%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb431…043abacked Yes38c39.08$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7c2…d53dbacked No65c38.97$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6513755.5%76 W · 61 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9686…1701backed No33c38.96$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9635133.6%118 W · 233 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x666d…340bbacked Yes70c35.71$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.933953.8%21 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73e7…8b59backed Yes36c35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.643441.5%180 W · 254 L+29.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes78c35$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2534067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No79c32.87$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.942,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes64c31.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2085049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No63c31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.474,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes41c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.428649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes40c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No41c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.71,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79b6…e042backed No39c29.98$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2944553.3%237 W · 208 L-21.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes60c27.38$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.51,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2510…b91bbacked No76c25.33$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.088545.9%39 W · 46 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed No69c24.32$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.581,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb664…b752backed No72c20.94$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.944344.2%19 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-31.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d52…c5aabacked No61c20.46$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.910359.2%61 W · 42 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No80c18.72$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.831,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No72c18.05$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0597570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6409…9411backed No74c17.56$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5682562.2%513 W · 312 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3a2…2c18backed No71c16.45$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.776663.6%42 W · 24 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick68cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No73c16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.3462770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No76c15.35$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.621,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6192…48efbacked Yes77c15.09$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.638856.8%50 W · 38 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1359…7e7bbacked No74c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.911774.4%87 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick75cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.