Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x725a0b0eea76193ca544d2bb90c859c5dcec51f118abcee6496d3b84a93256a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,783
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,783 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x22a7…9b55backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -47%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb71…3e7bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,023$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 40c | 371.46$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.46 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 44c | 340$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.6 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 39c | 317.83$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.77 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 59c | 293.02$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.09 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…1e24backed No | 56c | 279.14$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.14 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 42c | 227.09$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 57c | 195.29$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.75 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 46c | 163.65$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.92 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 53c | 162.1$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.12 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 144.32$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 58c | 142.93$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.77 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 14c | 130$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 42c | 130$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 129.83$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.34 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 47c | 124.54$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.12 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6028…a32dbacked Yes | 46c | 108.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 54c | 107.33$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.23 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 85.1$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x291d…8e36backed Yes | 46c | 77.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 23cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 62.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 53c | 62.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.01 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 55c | 60.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedee…7139backed Yes | 42c | 59.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 78c | 55.18$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 39c | 54.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 60c | 53.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 48c | 50.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 58c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed No | 54c | 46.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 58c | 45.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 54c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 37c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 55c | 41.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccd0…f4cabacked Yes | 50c | 40.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 38c | 39.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…b752backed No | 54c | 37.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…043abacked Yes | 44c | 33.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 45c | 33.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5599…4a71backed Yes | 46c | 32.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef5e…b385backed No | 54c | 32.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed No | 63c | 31.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 47c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51c…325abacked No | 57c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 68c | 28.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked No | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 63c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadaa…875abacked Yes | 44c | 27.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedd6…a9a6backed No | 56c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 56c | 26.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 56c | 26.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 56c | 26.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d46…f816backed No | 52c | 26.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa456…6d13backed Yes | 51c | 24.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 44c | 22.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 55c | 22.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27c5…0d4cbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked No | 64c | 17.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 102°F or higher on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.