MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96bd7f16c2f67079ad5e5be06f8d6dc5e63fadbaf609583816a37cf0190f755c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof New York Yankees, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,552
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,411
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,552 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Cubs | 79c | 4,227$3,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.65 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Yankees | 21c | 2,500$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed New York Yankees | 21c | 1,172$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.12 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Chicago Cubs | 75c | 552.01$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Yankees | 26c | 534$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.78 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Chicago Cubs | 60c | 325.97$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.5 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed New York Yankees | 21c | 309.19$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.93 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 203.59$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.29 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked New York Yankees | 36c | 201.6$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.58 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked New York Yankees | 21c | 136.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 556 | 58.1%323 W · 233 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed New York Yankees | 21c | 58.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed New York Yankees | 45c | 46.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed New York Yankees | 40c | 34.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Chicago Cubs | 53c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 1,813 | 49.1%891 W · 922 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Chicago Cubs | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Chicago Cubs | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago CubsNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.