MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e8effd98e32d43e653e50c3d285f254d9d4a3d75794346f9572759e67f38d6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 53c | 22,840$12,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,105.2 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 47c | 21,400$10,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,314.36 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 53c | 8,000$4,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,239.99 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 52c | 7,864$4,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,089.77 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 48c | 7,688$3,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,012.82 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf499…b5d9backed Under | 49c | 4,122$2,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,102.45 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 3,181$1,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,687.86 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 2,961$1,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,515.88 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Under | 47c | 2,957$1,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,567.24 | 619 | 47.7%295 W · 324 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Under | 46c | 2,184$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,179.53 | 291 | 47.1%137 W · 154 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 47c | 1,700$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…c2d6backed Over | 54c | 1,481$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 151 | 49.7%75 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 47c | 1,329$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.17 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 1,105$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.61 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 48c | 1,064$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.08 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 52c | 1,042$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.84 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 36c | 1,029$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.49 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Under | 47c | 1,002$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.06 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 51c | 998.51$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.27 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Over | 53c | 969.15$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.65 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Over | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 47c | 780$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.4 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 47c | 719.7$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.06 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 53c | 706.47$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.43 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Over | 54c | 456.8$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.67 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 54c | 448.32$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.15 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 48c | 399$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.48 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 51c | 325$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.5 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x656a…6077backed Over | 53c | 319$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.07 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 49c | 250.28$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.87 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 47c | 249.8$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.73 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 51c | 215.68$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 47c | 215$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.95 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 46c | 195.8$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.73 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…f7e1backed Over | 54c | 186$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.44 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 54c | 181.27$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.32 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…5a9ebacked Over | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 43c | 134.81$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.45 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 48c | 111.55$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 47c | 110.77$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.13 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 43c | 105$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 695 | 47.5%330 W · 365 L | -16.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…03acbacked Over | 53c | 96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Under | 44c | 90$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Over | 55c | 86.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Under | 49c | 85.02$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8652…93cebacked Under | 47c | 65.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Under | 48c | 59.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x345c…b59dbacked Over | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Over | 52c | 52.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Over | 52c | 52.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 58c | 51.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 44c | 42.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Under | 48c | 37.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 47c | 35.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 47c | 34.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa7…977abacked Over | 53c | 31.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 47c | 30.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 49c | 28.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Over | 54c | 27.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3756…b936backed Over | 53c | 26.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb15e…7c54backed Over | 53c | 25.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…7ce5backed Under | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 121 | 40.5%49 W · 72 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 44c | 23.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 50c | 21.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 53c | 20.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Over | 52c | 20.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba71…1209backed Over | 54c | 18.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago CubsNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.