MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9703be9566ee031efc41a130cb5527c0ceab9f191fa27fd9892bd707b4dbd502
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 60c | 664.26$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 41c | 543.52$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.3 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 61c | 179.69$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.61 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 60c | 173.07$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.44 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 39c | 153.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.85 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 40c | 151.69$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.19 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 54c | 125$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 39c | 89.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.74 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Under | 62c | 73.47$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 33c | 72.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 61c | 72.16$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3255…ffb9backed Over | 42c | 71.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 40c | 68.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 59c | 68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Over | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Over | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed Under | 63c | 59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Under | 56c | 54.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 59c | 51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 42.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 49c | 39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8858…ed3ebacked Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 64c | 21.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia PhilliesColorado Rockies won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.