MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10d98ad569fcce8e55ea63a73d4da1afee3298d18b545e9f9e3cbefb6b420a7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $206,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $208,054
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $206,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 47c | 101,098$47,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53,593.15 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4e…0232backed Under | 53c | 93,871$49,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,751.77 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f21…0ec5backed Over | 47c | 64,877$30,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,384.73 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 53c | 24,000$12,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,720 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 53c | 20,250$10,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,763.52 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 14,959$7,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,882.71 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 53c | 5,525$2,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,928.44 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 53c | 5,140$2,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,741.6 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 53c | 4,475$2,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,371.75 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 47c | 3,223$1,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,708.4 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Under | 53c | 3,195$1,693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,693.35 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 2,816$1,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,485.97 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 53c | 2,500$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…4687backed Over | 47c | 2,128$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.66 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21b7…c861backed Over | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 149 | 38.3%57 W · 92 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 53c | 1,787$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.97 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ad…45f9backed Over | 47c | 1,550$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.49 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 1,400$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Under | 53c | 1,105$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.47 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Under | 53c | 1,100$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9283…ba85backed Over | 47c | 708.51$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.51 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…80f7backed Over | 44c | 647.34$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 47c | 599.98$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.99 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 45c | 425.75$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.14 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd60…3927backed Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 46c | 400.1$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.05 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Over | 48c | 245.22$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.51 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1548…fe8ebacked Under | 54c | 225.19$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.6 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2271…16a0backed Under | 52c | 224.92$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 47c | 212.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.35 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 52c | 209.98$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.79 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 54c | 184.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Under | 21c | 152.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc0…099dbacked Over | 51c | 150.69$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.84 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Over | 57c | 140.35$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 692 | 49%339 W · 353 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 53c | 128.15$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.81 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 46c | 109.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.23 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Over | 48c | 104.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.51 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec45…6c6dbacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 170 | 58.2%99 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 53c | 91.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 51c | 90$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 76c | 86.94$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Under | 53c | 86.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 28c | 85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 22c | 84.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 62c | 82.86$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 54c | 78.01$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 51c | 78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…0477backed Over | 48c | 73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 113 | 65.5%74 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…a8dabacked Over | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 19c | 70.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 21c | 70.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 58c | 67.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Under | 46c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 22c | 53.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 52c | 50.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 48c | 44.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 54c | 43.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3679…b5a8backed Under | 53c | 43.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under | 43c | 42.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1833…cc31backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 48c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Under | 53c | 33.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 292 | 55.8%163 W · 129 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Over | 48c | 32.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 53c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 46c | 26.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 54c | 20.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Over | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia PhilliesColorado Rockies won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.