NFL · resolved market

Raiders vs. Cowboys

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x970d0ca607116afdcca224523c90ce658702d8e2e49239503845e1e6099cda95

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Cowboysof Raiders, Cowboys
Resolved: Aug 18, 2024, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $25,549
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $29,894

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,549 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4cc3…7552backed Raiders	72c	5,800$4,176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,175.96	251	37.5%94 W · 157 L	-18.6wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1dbd…af92backed Cowboys	28c	4,558$1,276 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,282.03	186	45.7%85 W · 101 L	-5.3wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcede…f2f6backed Cowboys	31c	2,500$783 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,716.29	90	22.2%20 W · 70 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a14…0762backed Raiders	30c	1,636$498 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$497.84	102	39.2%40 W · 62 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84de…b018backed Cowboys	30c	1,617$480 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,137.18	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.2wins	+0.20per pick	30cpaid	+57.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x55a3…eb16backed Raiders	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x373a…0773backed Raiders	29c	725.55$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.25per pick	50cpaid	-54.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d28…bb26backed Raiders	71c	660.51$471 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$471.49	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.5wins	-0.75per pick	75cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b7e…4562backed Raiders	71c	642.29$458 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$458.19	99	51.5%51 W · 48 L	+6.4wins	+0.06per pick	45cpaid	+28.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Cowboys	30c	500$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$350	304	46.7%142 W · 162 L	-6.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7d8…5a5ebacked Raiders	73c	400$291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291.4	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.22per pick	72cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6ae…d19cbacked Cowboys	34c	379.99$129 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$251.34	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4e1…0b47backed Cowboys	44c	343.45$152 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$191.13	74	59.5%44 W · 30 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	60cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x182b…f022backed Raiders	72c	300$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216	102	46.1%47 W · 55 L	+8.8wins	+0.09per pick	37cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xea10…f10ebacked Cowboys	28c	267.86$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$192.86	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe93f…1782backed Cowboys	40c	225.23$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$135.23	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.27per pick	40cpaid	+45.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed Raiders	71c	221.99$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.61	207	36.2%75 W · 132 L	-13.3wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	-23%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd42f…047dbacked Raiders	72c	221$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.02	324	38%123 W · 201 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd75…5616backed Raiders	74c	209.46$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.74per pick	74cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6807…391ebacked Cowboys	74c	185$137 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.65	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xae46…085cbacked Raiders	72c	174$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.43	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.3wins	-0.66per pick	66cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e82…64abbacked Raiders	10c	164.44$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.44	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-1.6wins	-0.11per pick	54cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad67…a975backed Raiders	64c	160$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.4	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	37cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb594…73e0backed Raiders	72c	159$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.48	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.3wins	-0.66per pick	66cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x346d…49efbacked Raiders	72c	159$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.48	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.3wins	-0.66per pick	66cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d62…6ab7backed Raiders	72c	159$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.48	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.3wins	-0.66per pick	66cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6c7…ca20backed Raiders	72c	159$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.48	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.3wins	-0.66per pick	66cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa457…84acbacked Raiders	72c	159$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.48	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.3wins	-0.66per pick	66cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb4f…a3c2backed Raiders	72c	159$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.01	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.3wins	-0.66per pick	66cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1574…64c9backed Raiders	71c	150$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.5	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+18.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc417…3ca6backed Raiders	73c	136.99$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	60	50%30 W · 30 L	-6.6wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x90db…46cbbacked Raiders	71c	125.99$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.45	20	55%11 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	62cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Raiders	71c	115.4$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.86	228	38.6%88 W · 140 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x216e…6501backed Cowboys	69c	114.11$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.08	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7723…b349backed Raiders	71c	114$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.94	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.71per pick	71cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2687…2142backed Raiders	71c	114$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.94	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.71per pick	71cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f42…5a76backed Raiders	72c	114$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.08	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.72per pick	72cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3da2…0ac6backed Raiders	71c	114$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.94	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.71per pick	71cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9fb…2f61backed Raiders	71c	114$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.94	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.71per pick	71cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac8e…a2d4backed Raiders	71c	114$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.94	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.71per pick	71cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07e3…ccadbacked Raiders	71c	114$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.94	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.71per pick	71cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbadd…0a9fbacked Raiders	72c	106$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.32	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.3wins	-0.66per pick	66cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa13…0e0ebacked Raiders	72c	106$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.32	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.3wins	-0.66per pick	66cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5009…dc6abacked Raiders	72c	106$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.32	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.3wins	-0.66per pick	66cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c88…ae32backed Raiders	72c	106$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.32	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.3wins	-0.66per pick	66cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xad38…c769backed Raiders	72c	106$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.32	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.3wins	-0.66per pick	66cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaea5…7471backed Raiders	72c	106$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.32	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.3wins	-0.66per pick	66cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Raiders	37c	105$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	217	13.8%30 W · 187 L	-16.1wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Raiders	72c	100$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	87	60.9%53 W · 34 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	59cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Cowboys	29c	99.99$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71	293	56%164 W · 129 L	+14.0wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcb1…d3e3backed Cowboys	40c	90.59$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.5	101	25.7%26 W · 75 L	-4.3wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0328…d834backed Raiders	71c	85.91$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	97	47.4%46 W · 51 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9796…0d9ebacked Raiders	72c	84$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.48	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	66cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc33b…c49abacked Raiders	72c	84$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.48	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	66cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dbe…4dbdbacked Raiders	72c	84$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.48	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	66cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf1b…ca89backed Raiders	72c	84$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.48	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	66cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe462…3f3ebacked Raiders	72c	84$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.48	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	66cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfb8…266dbacked Raiders	72c	84$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.48	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	66cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabf8…f0d4backed Raiders	72c	84$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.48	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	66cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf60a…ec06backed Raiders	72c	84$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.48	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	66cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95cc…0a96backed Raiders	72c	84$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.48	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	66cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde96…319cbacked Raiders	72c	84$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.48	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	66cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0ba…8542backed Raiders	72c	84$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.48	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	66cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe131…ecf9backed Raiders	72c	84$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.48	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	66cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf69e…9130backed Raiders	73c	84$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.9	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	66cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef97…c23fbacked Cowboys	30c	73.33$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.33	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.70per pick	30cpaid	+233.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Raiders	70c	71$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.7	314	39.8%125 W · 189 L	-16.0wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6650…d38ebacked Raiders	72c	70$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	99	46.5%46 W · 53 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc698…d6e3backed Raiders	73c	69.86$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4842…7c89backed Raiders	73c	66.37$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.45	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-1.7wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x74dc…30e6backed Cowboys	28c	58.39$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.04	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	+18.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4485…8ee2backed Raiders	73c	50.14$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.6	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.33per pick	67cpaid	-50.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2970…c700backed Cowboys	30c	46.67$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.67	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.70per pick	30cpaid	+233.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb91f…e659backed Cowboys	30c	45$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.35	48	41.7%20 W · 28 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bbe…0d3abacked Raiders	73c	41.1$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.3wins	-0.65per pick	65cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd834…6239backed Cowboys	44c	33.71$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.71	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+1.6wins	+0.12per pick	57cpaid	+38.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8c5…c9b5backed Raiders	73c	24.16$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.64	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-1.4wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc3c…e38bbacked Raiders	73c	20.55$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.2wins	-0.62per pick	62cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb97d…bf37backed Raiders	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.55per pick	55cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…c676backed Raiders	54c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	113	58.4%66 W · 47 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf13d…b346backed Raiders	72c	19.41$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	64cpaid	+18.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c09…dfb9backed Raiders	72c	15$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.09per pick	31cpaid	+237%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Raiders vs. Cowboys

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market