Tennis · resolved market
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Claire Liu vs Katarzyna Kawa
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97137d77294fec75d80e93c3d44b52990ea2794854358d25f8d54ea75e543015
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Claire Liuof Claire Liu, Katarzyna Kawa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f75…0fbfbacked Katarzyna Kawa | 19c | 5,729$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.58 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed Katarzyna Kawa | 48c | 1,224$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.76 | 252 | 45.2%114 W · 138 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2901…f4d6backed Claire Liu | 52c | 1,150$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Claire Liu | 79c | 801.35$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.25 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…3ee0backed Katarzyna Kawa | 16c | 702.41$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.4 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Katarzyna Kawa | 9c | 528.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 140 | 28.6%40 W · 100 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Claire Liu | 73c | 431.93$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.01 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Katarzyna Kawa | 30c | 339.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 496 | 32.3%160 W · 336 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Katarzyna Kawa | 5c | 325$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…cc6cbacked Claire Liu | 53c | 323.98$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.03 | 392 | 38.8%152 W · 240 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Katarzyna Kawa | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 1,421 | 28.6%407 W · 1,014 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Claire Liu | 79c | 213.78$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.21 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Katarzyna Kawa | 44c | 199$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.56 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Claire Liu | 77c | 162.32$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…a4c4backed Claire Liu | 69c | 143.8$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Katarzyna Kawa | 33c | 113.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d18…6f62backed Claire Liu | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 560 | 62.5%350 W · 210 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d1…3744backed Claire Liu | 70c | 85.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 1,104 | 66.9%739 W · 365 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1258…0c15backed Katarzyna Kawa | 24c | 85.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Katarzyna Kawa | 47c | 74.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Katarzyna Kawa | 31c | 63.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ded…68a3backed Claire Liu | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 885 | 60.2%533 W · 352 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Claire Liu | 79c | 47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 351 | 87.7%308 W · 43 L | +66.4wins | +0.19per pick | 69cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…1668backed Claire Liu | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 179 | 57.5%103 W · 76 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Claire Liu | 77c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce22…8914backed Claire Liu | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Claire Liu | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 653 | 46.4%303 W · 350 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Claire Liu | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +6.2wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Claire Liu | 53c | 28.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ad…71acbacked Katarzyna Kawa | 46c | 27.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 129 | 59.7%77 W · 52 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Katarzyna Kawa | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Claire Liu | 55c | 22.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6a…9888backed Claire Liu | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,222 | 55%672 W · 550 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.