Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97244b5362b9f498f762ebf0ccbc84b2ee3b1df7928ac99043c5aac90ce1dff2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,048
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,048 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 4,054$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.16 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed No | 3c | 799.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe591…b3f6backed No | 7c | 648.29$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 20c | 470.65$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.92 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 3c | 448.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 10c | 377.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 31c | 290.12$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.11 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 271.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4af1…b520backed Yes | 76c | 253.16$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed Yes | 71c | 215.2$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.41 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked No | 29c | 215.2$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.41 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 20c | 186.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 26c | 145.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 142.94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.71 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 33c | 109$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb27…cc9dbacked Yes | 71c | 107.97$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 75c | 102.26$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1753…cafdbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 32c | 99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 31c | 92.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.95 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 91.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 90$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 87$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.38 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 77c | 77.89$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 31c | 77.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.19 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…d1b9backed Yes | 36c | 76.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 30c | 75.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25eb…0506backed Yes | 30c | 74.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.53 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34be…7c96backed Yes | 30c | 73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 31c | 68.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf25…4f10backed Yes | 27c | 67.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 66.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b7…feffbacked No | 30c | 65.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed No | 75c | 64.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 30c | 61.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2656…a5b8backed Yes | 34c | 60.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 59 | 93.2%55 W · 4 L | +21.7wins | +0.37per pick | 56cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4a…a5a5backed Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 35 | 94.3%33 W · 2 L | +13.8wins | +0.40per pick | 55cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 76+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d1…d203backed Yes | 49c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7c52…1411backed Yes | 71c | 56.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 31c | 56.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd27c…d996backed Yes | 30c | 55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 72c | 51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…ee85backed Yes | 26c | 47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ee…d731backed No | 70c | 47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93cf…517cbacked No | 70c | 44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb9…1879backed Yes | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 43 | 93%40 W · 3 L | +14.6wins | +0.34per pick | 59cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x49e2…994dbacked No | 70c | 37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…b951backed Yes | 66c | 29.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 49 | 83.7%41 W · 8 L | +13.2wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 62c | 26.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 76c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 71c | 19.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 75c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on May 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.