Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2816a584210e30ea214c58db3fd571fd4237d6c1b70d294611a3720fb6b78ea6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 472.43$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1753…cafdbacked Yes | 8c | 408.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 27c | 356.71$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.85 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe591…b3f6backed Yes | 7c | 235.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 195$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.59 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 130$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 35c | 81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 79.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 15c | 79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb5…b11bbacked Yes | 39c | 73.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 76c | 68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 67.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2656…a5b8backed Yes | 19c | 62.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 71c | 59.61$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 33c | 53.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 78c | 52.83$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 67c | 51.6$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 70c | 51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…d1b9backed Yes | 34c | 49.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 41c | 47.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 78c | 47.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…ee85backed Yes | 33c | 47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 30c | 46.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 44.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 41.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 66c | 40.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 77c | 35.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…d9adbacked No | 60c | 33.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 74c | 20.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe61…e9c2backed No | 77c | 16.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 73 | 84.9%62 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 69c | 14.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.76 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on May 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.