WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x976dbcf325d390535abbb66a5b8028ca7edd91ce4aa234953ea4d9a32017faf9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Dreamof Atlanta Dream, PortlandFire
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Dream | 46c | 3,042$1,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,644.55 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed PortlandFire | 53c | 2,563$1,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,358.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed PortlandFire | 52c | 1,835$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.06 | 232 | 45.7%106 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5b…5443backed Atlanta Dream | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.2 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked PortlandFire | 56c | 976.07$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.73 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61e8…b283backed Atlanta Dream | 47c | 945.11$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.91 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeea8…0412backed PortlandFire | 53c | 666$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.98 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked PortlandFire | 44c | 613.81$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.04 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed PortlandFire | 60c | 496.15$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed PortlandFire | 24c | 263.04$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Atlanta Dream | 77c | 258.72$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.72 | 229 | 67.7%155 W · 74 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…40d5backed Atlanta Dream | 47c | 234.93$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.51 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Atlanta Dream | 47c | 229.62$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.84 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed PortlandFire | 54c | 190$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Atlanta Dream | 47c | 157.8$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.63 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked PortlandFire | 24c | 126.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Atlanta Dream | 47c | 102.11$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Atlanta Dream | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…5300backed Atlanta Dream | 47c | 96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.88 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked PortlandFire | 25c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 248 | 52.4%130 W · 118 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked PortlandFire | 27c | 87.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 376 | 50.3%189 W · 187 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Atlanta Dream | 47c | 81.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.03 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Atlanta Dream | 49c | 76.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed PortlandFire | 50c | 52.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Atlanta Dream | 47c | 41.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Atlanta Dream | 47c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 149 | 36.9%55 W · 94 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Atlanta Dream | 48c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 321 | 50.2%161 W · 160 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Atlanta Dream | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked PortlandFire | 37c | 27.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 64 | 1.6%1 W · 63 L | -26.1wins | -0.41per pick | 42cpaid | -97.6%equal weight | 17-0.29 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Dream (-9.5)this page
- Atlanta Dream vs. PortlandFireAtlanta Dream won
- Atlanta Dream vs. PortlandFire: O/U 162.5Under won
- Atlanta Dream vs. PortlandFire: O/U 163.5Under won
- Atlanta Dream vs. PortlandFire: O/U 164.5Under won
- Atlanta Dream vs. PortlandFire: O/U 165.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Dream (-10.5)Atlanta Dream won
- Spread: Atlanta Dream (-8.5)Atlanta Dream won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.