WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f745b9a54eb0066189f97bb7eff6688efc9f3f4445232ee2081210554b97050
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Dreamof Atlanta Dream, PortlandFire
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,451
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,451 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Dream | 42c | 6,396$2,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,726.96 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked PortlandFire | 59c | 6,264$3,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,700 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Atlanta Dream | 54c | 2,935$1,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,356.2 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6982…a165backed PortlandFire | 56c | 1,789$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…9ccdbacked PortlandFire | 50c | 1,740$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Atlanta Dream | 54c | 1,265$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.98 | 209 | 47.4%99 W · 110 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed PortlandFire | 46c | 1,263$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.83 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Atlanta Dream | 40c | 600$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Atlanta Dream | 44c | 512.18$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.82 | 327 | 43.7%143 W · 184 L | -23.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed PortlandFire | 68c | 434.74$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.62 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -13.5wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked PortlandFire | 27c | 399.96$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.99 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Atlanta Dream | 68c | 365.58$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.58 | 229 | 67.7%155 W · 74 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8430…3961backed Atlanta Dream | 75c | 331.34$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…a295backed PortlandFire | 63c | 319.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed PortlandFire | 48c | 272.12$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.08 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Dream | 45c | 219.67$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.1 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fd…3e24backed PortlandFire | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…5300backed PortlandFire | 32c | 184$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x135d…56c0backed PortlandFire | 66c | 164.53$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…d3ebbacked PortlandFire | 64c | 156.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Atlanta Dream | 58c | 146$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.01 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Atlanta Dream | 40c | 123.05$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.83 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Atlanta Dream | 42c | 112.8$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.42 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed PortlandFire | 45c | 95.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Atlanta Dream | 58c | 92.61$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -11.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Atlanta Dream | 40c | 87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 211 | 50.2%106 W · 105 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1074…a25dbacked Atlanta Dream | 52c | 85.92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Atlanta Dream | 62c | 76.86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -11.1wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Atlanta Dream | 58c | 57.58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Atlanta Dream | 61c | 56.86$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -8.4wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed PortlandFire | 37c | 56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd37…e117backed Atlanta Dream | 33c | 54.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Atlanta Dream | 46c | 50.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…3961backed PortlandFire | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66da…69b0backed PortlandFire | 31c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c7…2c0cbacked PortlandFire | 66c | 48.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed PortlandFire | 48c | 44.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked PortlandFire | 38c | 34.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed PortlandFire | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 103 | 49.5%51 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9a…d233backed Atlanta Dream | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed PortlandFire | 69c | 16.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Dream (-10.5)this page
- Atlanta Dream vs. PortlandFireAtlanta Dream won
- Atlanta Dream vs. PortlandFire: O/U 162.5Under won
- Atlanta Dream vs. PortlandFire: O/U 163.5Under won
- Atlanta Dream vs. PortlandFire: O/U 164.5Under won
- Atlanta Dream vs. PortlandFire: O/U 165.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Dream (-8.5)Atlanta Dream won
- Spread: Atlanta Dream (-9.5)Atlanta Dream won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.