MLB · resolved market
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x979f20175e9951e4d34c61aad4d8af381faf53f18c0d9bf414596b21f434b734
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof Texas Rangers, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,120
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Texas Rangers | 35c | 1,983$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.14 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Francisco Giants | 64c | 1,473$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.35 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants | 64c | 1,111$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63ec…3b76backed Texas Rangers | 36c | 1,111$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Texas Rangers | 12c | 776$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.27 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Texas Rangers | 36c | 330$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…4537backed Texas Rangers | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Francisco Giants | 65c | 299.99$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Texas Rangers | 35c | 213.96$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.27 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked San Francisco Giants | 65c | 210$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed San Francisco Giants | 64c | 155.31$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.91 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Texas Rangers | 36c | 140$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed San Francisco Giants | 65c | 123.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed San Francisco Giants | 65c | 109.82$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed San Francisco Giants | 65c | 92.32$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked San Francisco Giants | 69c | 77.69$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed San Francisco Giants | 65c | 75.23$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed San Francisco Giants | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed San Francisco Giants | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed San Francisco Giants | 65c | 30.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d23…251cbacked San Francisco Giants | 65c | 30.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 117 | 51.3%60 W · 57 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed San Francisco Giants | 65c | 30.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec95…a2dcbacked San Francisco Giants | 65c | 30.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc020…5edbbacked San Francisco Giants | 66c | 23.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 229 | 54.6%125 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked San Francisco Giants | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed San Francisco Giants | 65c | 17.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed San Francisco Giants | 65c | 17.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed San Francisco Giants | 65c | 15.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Texas RangersSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Texas RangersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.