MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3309e2b3ae9b19657eec0d09596893e0355b7b11f947cc814af79883e005986d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 54c | 1,446$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.42 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 78c | 1,370$1,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.86 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c10…b6a4backed Over | 16c | 1,206$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.74 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…9a83backed Under | 46c | 780.28$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.06 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 42c | 712$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.78 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 56c | 600$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 44c | 530$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.6 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 44c | 508.4$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.7 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Over | 55c | 345.4$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.52 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 52c | 335.56$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.72 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…730abacked Over | 62c | 309$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.58 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac48…e505backed Over | 31c | 270.49$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.86 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 47c | 234.04$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.04 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 53c | 228.04$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.86 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Over | 45c | 194.28$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.77 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Under | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 72c | 120.26$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 60c | 117.77$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.23 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 44c | 95.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.64 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…9bb3backed Over | 41c | 84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 53c | 71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…f356backed Under | 68c | 64.03$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 38c | 61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 40c | 50.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 42.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Over | 29c | 42.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Over | 55c | 39.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 45c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 42c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 45c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Over | 55c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Texas RangersSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Texas RangersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.