Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97ee2026fcf612f5ce6c67a016541db61e367f12656618153d81cd883eacbbfc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,457
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 72c | 1,643$1,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,177.22 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 28c | 738.73$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.32 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 77c | 668.58$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.31 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 666.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.28 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 12c | 620.82$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.23 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 47c | 519.37$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.04 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 63c | 453.93$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.81 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 39c | 434.68$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.49 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 11c | 305.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.42 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 241.9$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.05 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 239$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.96 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 232.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 17c | 230.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.62 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 21c | 218.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.84 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 10c | 190$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 22c | 185.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed Yes | 16c | 185$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.2 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 58c | 147.47$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.07 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 60c | 146$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.86 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 60c | 126.58$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.61 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 20c | 125.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.78 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 80c | 120$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.7 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 13c | 112.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.94 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 111.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes | 62c | 110$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 77c | 106.27$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.35 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 105.9$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 24c | 100.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.37 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 12c | 97.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.96 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 85.34$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 13c | 78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.86 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 53c | 77.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 15c | 74.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.29 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…2d49backed No | 23c | 66.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf559…8a92backed Yes | 23c | 64.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +153.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 78c | 63.06$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 64c | 61.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 76c | 59.88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x680a…0a15backed Yes | 20c | 58.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.73 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 58.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 42c | 58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 72c | 57.64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 21c | 53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadd1…2658backed Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 54c | 34.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 41c | 33.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 55c | 32.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5f…c91dbacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 61c | 23.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 76c | 13.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.