TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,036
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,198

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,036 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes46c853.26$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.571,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes55c402.24$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.24,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked No27c398.47$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.621,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1925…b15dbacked No32c383.21$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.18862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+48.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No61c378$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.394,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed No37c373.42$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.392028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c5f…a235backed Yes67c358.98$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.5211148.6%54 W · 57 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed No30c333$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.1384930.6%260 W · 589 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No45c246.31$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.2210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No64c239$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.695,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No30c237$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.273,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes68c217.45$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.391,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed Yes48c207.46$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.5938138.6%147 W · 234 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15fb…252dbacked Yes73c200$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked No31c190$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.311731.6%37 W · 80 L-19.1wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-39.5%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes59c171.65$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.441,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes68c170.12$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.8811343.4%49 W · 64 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd182…941ebacked No52c170$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.21060%6 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+16.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked Yes74c150$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.548743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc512…7fdfbacked No28c150$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.256744.8%30 W · 37 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No47c145.81$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.4912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No53c140$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.558152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No48c129.99$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.992,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes49c124.17$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.267,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No47c121.98$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.799,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0020…16b9backed Yes56c117.58$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.8418333.3%61 W · 122 L-17.7wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-33.2%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x4d57…419cbacked Yes72c117.1$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.981442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed Yes72c114.21$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.8577851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No38c106.19$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.341,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes45c100.16$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3268335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0cc…3c16backed Yes70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702839.3%11 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No53c99.99$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.991,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd22…2013backed No37c99.46$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.4931454.1%170 W · 144 L+31.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+21.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes45c95.96$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.88,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No53c95$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.653,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked No43c94.29$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.1354547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No32c94.19$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.051,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes36c94.07$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.19,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7510…6cb0backed Yes61c93.47$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.554141.5%17 W · 24 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x784a…06c3backed Yes68c87.85$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6034050.6%172 W · 168 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No61c84.23$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.0199962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes64c80$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.23,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes60c70.53$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No55c68.27$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.624,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x634d…4d02backed Yes44c67.87$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6512747.2%60 W · 67 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No79c66.87$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.882,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No45c66.26$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.421,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x65ce…6ff8backed No33c60.66$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.7419345.6%88 W · 105 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes42c60.13$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.292,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes46c60$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.371,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No28c58.21$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.971,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe77d…7383backed Yes71c57.56$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.871323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.22per pick45cpaid-55.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No46c54$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.894,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No78c53$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.661,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96d5…7227backed Yes71c52.81$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.482441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-30.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No39c51.61$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.345,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ffd…e7c6backed No58c51.3$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2951631.6%163 W · 353 L-29.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x306b…179ebacked No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick22cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0294…76a0backed No51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.515246.1%70 W · 82 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7195…177abacked No51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.51050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x464c…f570backed No51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4af9…3144backed No53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.521950.7%111 W · 108 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x989e…aa30backed No53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.514745.6%67 W · 80 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x86cc…f46ebacked No51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.52050%10 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21d3…8c5fbacked No53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.513351.1%68 W · 65 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb31a…8817backed No53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.518254.4%99 W · 83 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcae…1ea8backed No53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.510147.5%48 W · 53 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c74…ab27backed No41c49.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.51540%6 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc37e…e184backed Yes60c48.14$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.741442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-24.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No54c47.93$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.8665965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes43c46.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2062137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35ee…1b59backed No24c45$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No41c44.93$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.682,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf27a…8651backed No46c44.42$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes53c43.53$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0735137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4125…868cbacked No33c41$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.478240.2%33 W · 49 L-7.1wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked No55c40.78$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2893837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13a9…fc29backed No51c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.62152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes46c38.57$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No55c35.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.194,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No58c35$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.83,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No72c34.16$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.662,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x94ce…edf2backed No36c33.73$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.595648.2%27 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes45c33.15$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9243848.6%213 W · 225 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc62d…5577backed Yes78c32.35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1425038%95 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Yes61c30.19$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.271,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50b1…0793backed No54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.843663.5%277 W · 159 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3b2…d3d9backed No51c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.72751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No41c28.37$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.73,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f5f…c91dbacked Yes74c26.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202065%13 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes58c26.8$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6610042%42 W · 58 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6192…48efbacked Yes67c25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.758856.8%50 W · 38 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x549c…100abacked Yes43c23.26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1012438.7%48 W · 76 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes64c22.55$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.492,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes64c22$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.086,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes71c21.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158228%23 W · 59 L-9.4wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-47.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No55c21.03$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.461,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4264…1706backed Yes75c20.84$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.640871.8%293 W · 115 L-0.8wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.41,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ac0…ace0backed Yes63c16$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.087463.5%47 W · 27 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.