Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs Global Esports - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x980d48e4576c1833624f0cb9a705550601ab39787f294be43568e4ddcda154d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Global Esportsof Rex Regum Qeon, Global Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1a8…6427backed Global Esports | 72c | 4,281$3,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,198.83 | 105 | 66.7%70 W · 35 L | +10.0wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Rex Regum Qeon | 23c | 2,998$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.8 | 1,276 | 32.1%409 W · 867 L | -67.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0378…7634backed Global Esports | 67c | 2,097$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.35 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 63cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Rex Regum Qeon | 19c | 2,003$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.87 | 1,608 | 45.2%727 W · 881 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Rex Regum Qeon | 33c | 1,264$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.36 | 1,746 | 46.2%806 W · 940 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…eef4backed Global Esports | 61c | 1,085$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.28 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaff…5cb1backed Rex Regum Qeon | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -92.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Rex Regum Qeon | 26c | 801.05$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 253 | 36.4%92 W · 161 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…d72abacked Rex Regum Qeon | 52c | 759.6$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 306 | 52.3%160 W · 146 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Rex Regum Qeon | 3c | 713.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 1,358 | 39%530 W · 828 L | -57.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Rex Regum Qeon | 46c | 658.15$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.04 | 621 | 56.4%350 W · 271 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c0…3bc8backed Rex Regum Qeon | 48c | 619.7$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed Rex Regum Qeon | 28c | 619.58$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.11 | 563 | 57.9%326 W · 237 L | +36.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3f…6941backed Rex Regum Qeon | 62c | 619$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.78 | 260 | 51.9%135 W · 125 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6b…ca87backed Rex Regum Qeon | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa981…ab19backed Rex Regum Qeon | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04d2…4850backed Global Esports | 74c | 575.94$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.13 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | +12.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Rex Regum Qeon | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 565 | 51.2%289 W · 276 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c6…933abacked Rex Regum Qeon | 41c | 481.53$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1032…c372backed Global Esports | 50c | 463.27$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.17 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed Rex Regum Qeon | 4c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 463 | 47.1%218 W · 245 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Rex Regum Qeon | 34c | 324.46$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.65 | 888 | 44.4%394 W · 494 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3e…1fbbbacked Rex Regum Qeon | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Rex Regum Qeon | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 225 | 39.1%88 W · 137 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf33…0353backed Rex Regum Qeon | 41c | 279.96$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 333 | 46.5%155 W · 178 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Global Esports | 56c | 259.39$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.95 | 1,490 | 46.6%695 W · 795 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Rex Regum Qeon | 13c | 239.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 1,601 | 37.5%600 W · 1,001 L | -75.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59cb…57d1backed Global Esports | 66c | 223.48$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.98 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53fd…b7a9backed Global Esports | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Global Esports | 77c | 192$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Rex Regum Qeon | 23c | 185.7$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 962 | 45.1%434 W · 528 L | -18.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…da03backed Global Esports | 49c | 182.82$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.81 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…d3aebacked Rex Regum Qeon | 60c | 182.49$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.29 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33d3…bf38backed Rex Regum Qeon | 13c | 180$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c78…aad1backed Global Esports | 53c | 179.25$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.25 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0da…749bbacked Rex Regum Qeon | 40c | 175.64$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 106 | 28.3%30 W · 76 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Rex Regum Qeon | 44c | 175$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 796 | 50%398 W · 398 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Rex Regum Qeon | 26c | 167.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 907 | 33.1%300 W · 607 L | -89.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Global Esports | 53c | 165.62$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.84 | 639 | 55.6%355 W · 284 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…ad06backed Rex Regum Qeon | 59c | 163.76$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.94 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Rex Regum Qeon | 8c | 162$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 811 | 34.9%283 W · 528 L | -60.9wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Rex Regum Qeon | 11c | 151$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 700 | 43.7%306 W · 394 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Global Esports | 68c | 138.74$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 571 | 51%291 W · 280 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…9a83backed Global Esports | 38c | 130.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.26 | 214 | 54.2%116 W · 98 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade6…c465backed Rex Regum Qeon | 31c | 130.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 653 | 47.3%309 W · 344 L | -18.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b8…31e6backed Rex Regum Qeon | 47c | 125.94$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.19 | 361 | 45.7%165 W · 196 L | +22.8wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed Global Esports | 38c | 119$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.78 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…dbe6backed Rex Regum Qeon | 49c | 102.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 110 | 42.7%47 W · 63 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Rex Regum Qeon | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 389 | 50.6%197 W · 192 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Rex Regum Qeon | 37c | 89.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 553 | 48.3%267 W · 286 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Global Esports | 46c | 89$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 1,247 | 49.6%619 W · 628 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Rex Regum Qeon | 20c | 89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 338 | 38.5%130 W · 208 L | -21.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Rex Regum Qeon | 59c | 86.85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 223 | 52.9%118 W · 105 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff95…859cbacked Global Esports | 53c | 82.64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Rex Regum Qeon | 40c | 82.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 396 | 46%182 W · 214 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Global Esports | 53c | 75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 199 | 45.2%90 W · 109 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab6…4880backed Rex Regum Qeon | 33c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 205 | 47.8%98 W · 107 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Rex Regum Qeon | 24c | 74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 746 | 42.8%319 W · 427 L | -27.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6385…2afabacked Rex Regum Qeon | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 93 | 14%13 W · 80 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Rex Regum Qeon | 39c | 61.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 520 | 50%260 W · 260 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked Global Esports | 45c | 56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 137 | 41.6%57 W · 80 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Rex Regum Qeon | 47c | 49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…50d7backed Rex Regum Qeon | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 134 | 56.7%76 W · 58 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Rex Regum Qeon | 43c | 44.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 204 | 39.2%80 W · 124 L | -18.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd181…6a2bbacked Global Esports | 44c | 41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa597…79d7backed Rex Regum Qeon | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d1…6a15backed Rex Regum Qeon | 38c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab1…638bbacked Global Esports | 65c | 32.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb50…c314backed Global Esports | 79c | 32.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Global Esports | 51c | 31.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 534 | 42.1%225 W · 309 L | -15.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe0…fb5bbacked Rex Regum Qeon | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 349 | 54.7%191 W · 158 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…1d2abacked Rex Regum Qeon | 60c | 27.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d7…a1ffbacked Rex Regum Qeon | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x177d…158abacked Rex Regum Qeon | 49c | 24.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…3ea1backed Global Esports | 51c | 24.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 201 | 60.2%121 W · 80 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4b…69debacked Global Esports | 60c | 20.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 519 | 48.4%251 W · 268 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Global Esports | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +7.0wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31e0…1d15backed Global Esports | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs Global Esports - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: GE (-1.5) vs Rex Regum Qeon (+1.5)Global Esports won
- Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group AlphaGlobal Esports won
- Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs Global Esports - Map 2 WinnerGlobal Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.