Commodities · resolved market
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x983614659040d7e4140c46d3816cd55b4fcc9f0616e6b695608a3b0d5cc5b880
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,731
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,731 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9dce…6884backed Up | 58c | 2,051$1,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,194.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…c957backed Down | 74c | 2,044$1,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Up | 31c | 1,899$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.48 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Down | 79c | 1,852$1,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.55 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4d26…e717backed Down | 6c | 878.3$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,566.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Up | 37c | 866.11$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.47 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66f…352cbacked Up | 54c | 809.28$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Down | 69c | 706.58$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.77 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Down | 45c | 548.51$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…71b6backed Down | 49c | 405.84$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.84 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +5.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1c…47f5backed Down | 46c | 300$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…202fbacked Up | 17c | 270$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718f…f25abacked Up | 15c | 239.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b40…5011backed Up | 30c | 193.35$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ee…04c2backed Up | 27c | 189.13$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858a…af1abacked Down | 76c | 131.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d0…7f72backed Down | 71c | 120$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ca…d7a6backed Down | 74c | 119.07$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3f…2e7cbacked Down | 35c | 116.81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.49 | 84 | 65.5%55 W · 29 L | +11.0wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Up | 50c | 114.02$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.01 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Up | 26c | 103.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1473…e5bcbacked Up | 45c | 101.71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae4…a659backed Up | 27c | 100.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f77…0e57backed Down | 75c | 92.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…694bbacked Up | 36c | 85.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Down | 65c | 80.28$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked Down | 31c | 70.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Up | 33c | 70.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked Down | 53c | 52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 82 | 62.2%51 W · 31 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c9…bac8backed Up | 44c | 46.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…d178backed Up | 48c | 43.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49d9…d032backed Up | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Down | 75c | 39.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -14.2wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6235…7a5ebacked Down | 79c | 37.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…1ad2backed Down | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2a…4aefbacked Down | 74c | 36.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Down | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72ec…82f5backed Down | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdba…3b6fbacked Down | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52e8…10f0backed Down | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df3…73fbbacked Down | 64c | 28.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Up | 38c | 26.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 93 | 12.9%12 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d1…82b1backed Up | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.8wins | -0.28per pick | 52cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4656…41d7backed Down | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.